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0.5* Toronto +3 -118

Finally got the three I wanted. Maybe I jumped a bit early but I see some buyback at the 2/2.5 level so I don’t know that I’ll get any better.
If I do I’ll add another half unit. If not, I will add a half unit on the ML above +120
 

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Recapping entire week 6 card thus far for the new page...

1.5* BC / OTT under 53.5 -114
1* WPG / TOR over 50.5 -115
0.5* Toronto +3 -118


Hate having this much vig on my playsbut I stand by each one. It’s more of an art than a science.
 
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Any leans tonight Hulu?

I took under 52 for a lil' just based on head to head and recent trends...
Hamilton is probably the right side but I can’t take them at this number. They haven’t shown the killer instinct required to put teams away.

I’d also lean under but not a lot of confidence. The way the cats moved the ball last week they should’ve had 30 points and a breakout game for the offence is not out of the question here. And despite carter being on the depth chart at CB, I think coach slingblade will have him on offence too which means we could see an explosive play or two from the green riders.
 

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Results after Week 6

Sides 6-5 +0.655*
Totals 12-2 +8.69*
2H plays 5-1 +2.965*
Teaser/Parlay 1-0 +0.50*


Overall 24-8 +12.81*

2-2 and lost 0.8 units. First losing week. Sucks but bound to happen and not too awful.

Next week its back to basics. Lines are tightening so the opportunities will be fewer.
 

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1.5* Ottawa +4 -106

I waffles between making this pk or 1 either way. But there’s no way the cats should be favoured by 4. Especially after having to shuffle their OL this week after the trade.
 

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1* TOR / WPG under 54 -110

Until Toronto learns to score I’ll keep going under with them. Only 2 scoop’n’scores got them over the number last week. They have a below average group of receivers and you can’t base N entire offence around your running back. I would be surprised if they got over 17 points
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
1* TOR / WPG under 54 -110

Until Toronto learns to score I’ll keep going under with them. Only 2 scoop’n’scores got them over the number last week. They have a below average group of receivers and you can’t base N entire offence around your running back. I would be surprised if they got over 17 points
Very nice.

Do you ever play team totals?
 

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Very nice.

Do you ever play team totals?
Rarely in the CFL only because most of my books either don't offer them or else put them up later in the week after the value is gone. This situation would be ideal though since the Argos inability to put up points is the main driver behind this bet.
 

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Don’t understand the line move but I’m trusting my gut here and adding on the RBs at +6.5 and ML. Full bet now as follows...

1.5/0.5/0.5* Ottawa +4/+6.5/ML -106/-114/+201
 

scarf31

CTG Elite Moderator
Staff member
I'm with you, my friend. I cannot believe Hamilton, who just got 100% outcoached in their last home game is going to have 2 new-to-the-league coaches turn things around against a team that isn't having problems moving the ball. They've lost 2 games to the best team in the league and could've won the game in Calgary if they didn't keep screwing the pooch time after time.

My big fear (other than a potential Harris injury which I trust Campbell when he says he's okay) is that Hammy doesn't burn the RB secondary like Lulay did. Need to see this Hamilton team make the adjustments after the great start and it's been consecutive poor showings so I trust Campbell a hell of a lot more to make adjustments than JJ and JG.
 

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And Noel Thorpe must be salivating while watching film of how the riders dismantled Hamilton’s offensive line last week, knowing that he also faces a pure noob in the all-important LT position.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Rarely in the CFL only because most of my books either don't offer them or else put them up later in the week after the value is gone. This situation would be ideal though since the Argos inability to put up points is the main driver behind this bet.
So I have a 22 available... Thoughts?
 

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So I have a 22 available... Thoughts?
Probably not a bad play based on the fact that they haven’t gotten to that number yet since Franklin took over. That won’t last forever but I dont see any reason it changes tonight.

A secondary factor that makes me like the total under is the Argos have quietly returned a number of defensive starters they didn’t have last week. Dylan Wynn, Frank Beltre, (former Detroit lion) Cassius Vaugh & Jeff Finley will all help contain Harris and the bombers.

One update on the offense. James Wilder jr who was carted away from practice this week is on the depth chart as a starter so he may be fine. No word on McCluster who was expected to see his first action this week but was also hurt in practice.
 

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Hah thanks guys. I've never had a start quite like this.

Not going to get a big head about it though. Pride goeth before the fall.
 

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Playing with house money now and I've liked this play all week and the number just keeps getting better and better so I'll bite for a half unit.

0.5* Saskatchewan +7.5 +102
 

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Results after Week 7

Sides 7-6 +3.205*
Totals 13-2-1 +10.19*
2H plays 5-1 +2.965*
Teaser/Parlay 2-0 +1.00*


Overall 27-9-1 +17.36*

Back in the saddle this week going 3-1-1. Next week is tricky. Have to do some work tomorrow to see where the value might be.
 

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Hate those half point losses.

Anyway, on to today...

0.5* HAM / MTL over 50 -110

Pretty puplic play but I like it for a number of reasons. Restricting to a half unit because I missed the better number earlier.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
Hate those half point losses.

Anyway, on to today...

0.5* HAM / MTL over 50 -110

Pretty puplic play but I like it for a number of reasons. Restricting to a half unit because I missed the better number earlier.
I can’t see Montreal holding anyone at home with stubler defense to less than 28.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
Mental note:


Noel Thorpe on late game defensive possessions is terrible. He blew so many games with the alouettes. One reason why I figured he would lose the big lead last night!

He stinks in pressure drives
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Hate those half point losses.

Anyway, on to today...

0.5* HAM / MTL over 50 -110

Pretty puplic play but I like it for a number of reasons. Restricting to a half unit because I missed the better number earlier.
Good luck.

I'll ask one of my usuals...

TT of 28.5...thoughts?
 

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Good luck.

I'll ask one of my usuals...

TT of 28.5...thoughts?
In this case I think the situation suggests that one or both teams can improve on their average season score in this game so I wouldn't lean on a team total. Gun to my head, I would say that Hamilton probably has more reason to go over their team total than the ALs but as I said I think both teams can contribute.

We've had unders hitting at a 60% clip this season thus far. That happened last year too until a few over weeks leveled things out somewhat. This week we had 3 of 4 games with sub-50 totals which makes it look like the market has reacted and perhaps overreacted. I think the "revenge of the overs" starts this week.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
In this case I think the situation suggests that one or both teams can improve on their average season score in this game so I wouldn't lean on a team total. Gun to my head, I would say that Hamilton probably has more reason to go over their team total than the ALs but as I said I think both teams can contribute.

We've had unders hitting at a 60% clip this season thus far. That happened last year too until a few over weeks leveled things out somewhat. This week we had 3 of 4 games with sub-50 totals which makes it look like the market has reacted and perhaps overreacted. I think the "revenge of the overs" starts this week.
I like your thinking here....

Adjust as season goes...good capping mentality.

I'll play with ya on the 50.
 

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Let's get it BAR.

I'd love to get some money down on Hamilton in some fashion but I don't think I can do it. As much as I think they should win outright, something about Jeremiah Masoli holds me back. Even though he clearly plays better on the road, he seems to wilt in pressure situations like the 2 minute drill. His 4th quarter numbers are dismal compared the his stats in the first 3. And what more pressure could you have than this matchup? Its essentially a referendum on whether or not the cats kept the right QB. If they lose to Manziel in his first game, the headlines write themselves and the fans will be having a conniption fit. Masoli has to be feeling some pressure heading into this matchup. As much as I'm not quite sure what we see out of Manziel, I'm also not quite sure what we see out of Masoli.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
Masoli has no intensity.

He lacks a deep passing game, almost everything he throws is shorter passes.

He isn’t a vocal leader.

Personally I think he’s overrated. I’ll say it again.

What has masoli accomplished in the cfl? Stats?

Any big wins? Beat cgy? Anything????
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
One factor working in the over factor is—

Struggling teams at home always seem to give up huge points.

Montreal defense at home has sucked for a very long time. Any good game this team he is on the road.
Argos said idea. They give up 30+ regularly at home.

Stubler defense is really bad.

Add in 3 new dbs into lineup and stubler defense which should have dbs employing the Wally sage strategy of DONT GET BEAT DEEP but make Sure you don’t cover anyone. Just run back and protect the deep pass.

If June Jones smart here. He could throw the same 10 yard passes all game vs stubler. Then he will blitz and it’s so obvious because he sends everyone leading to an easy td for the QB
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
I think Dane Evans will replace masoli at qb. It’s a matter of time.

Masoli was a product of stat geeks and a weakened qb class.
The same weak class that was crowning Johnathan Jennings and James franklins as stars and. future nfl stars??

The league is weak in quarterbacking.

Masoli isn’t starting material imo.
 

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I think Dane Evans will replace masoli at qb. It’s a matter of time.

Masoli was a product of stat geeks and a weakened qb class.
The same weak class that was crowning Johnathan Jennings and James franklins as stars and. future nfl stars??

The league is weak in quarterbacking.

Masoli isn’t starting material imo.
That's a bold prediction Sammy.

I noticed on Montreal's depth chart, Drew Willy is 4th QB behind someone names J. Apocapa of somesuch. Never heard of him but it did make me wonder if a trade for Silly Willy is in the works. I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up in Hamilton.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
That's a bold prediction Sammy.

I noticed on Montreal's depth chart, Drew Willy is 4th QB behind someone names J. Apocapa of somesuch. Never heard of him but it did make me wonder if a trade for Silly Willy is in the works. I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up in Hamilton.

Who wants Willy? Guy is totally finished. He has no game at all.

I love bold predictions! Dane Evans to the rescue!
 

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Results after Week 7

Sides 8-6 +3.705*
Totals 14-2-1 +10.69*
2H plays 5-2 +2.415*
Live Plays 1-0 +0.75*
Teaser/Parlay 2-0 +1.00*


Overall 30-10-1 +18.56*

3-1 but only just over unit profit due to me playing it way too conservative this week.
 

inZane

Well-Known Member
1* Winnipeg -4 -110

Made this -6.5. I think the bombers have been lying in wait on their bye and will beat up on a cats team who are fat and happy off their big win over Montreal.
It should be a high scoring game which makes the points less relevant.
Higher than 57?

I also see that the 'Mos have handled BC the last 4 games, and look pretty good from my novice pov. Can they cash laying the 3* on the road, in your opinion?
 
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Higher than 57?

I also see that the 'Mos have handled BC the last 4 games, and look pretty good from my novice pov. Can they cash laying the 3* on the road, in your opinion?
I can envision several scenarios in Winnipeg where the game could go over or under. I made it 56 and it could easily sail over 60 or Masoli and the cats offense could falter and we could have a 32-15 kind of night. I'll keep thinking about it but I don't think I'll be making a total play there.

As for the Esks, I made it 3.5 and I think the line is about right. On paper they are the better team and should win. BC is a different animal with Lulay leading the offense and I could see them pulling the upset just as much as I could see the Esks winning easily. If the line were a bit higher I would be more inclined to grab the points on BC than to lay them with Edmonton.
 

guaranteeed

CTG Elite Moderator
Staff member
Agree on both, i think winnipeg is kind of going to elevate themselves up into a clear top 3 with the alberta squads the next few weeks, its a great spot too like you say

I would play it up to 7 personally
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
Higher than 57?

I also see that the 'Mos have handled BC the last 4 games, and look pretty good from my novice pov. Can they cash laying the 3* on the road, in your opinion?
Don’t touch unders with Winnipeg at home.

They score a lot of points. Usually have gadget plays. Fake a few punts etc.

Defensively then they allow huge plays.

Plus in Winnipeg the weirdest plays happen. Punt returns pick 6 blocked kicks all seem to happen regularly.
 
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