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Houston vs Boston Game 4 Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Por-cello to Lead Boston Orchestra to Game Four Victory in Houston on Wednesday

Houston hosts Boston for Game Four on Wednesday at 8:39 ET on TBS. This game should see some scoring, but Boston will do the greatest part of it.

Wednesday, 8:39 ET (TBS)


MLB Pick: Boston ML



Boston’s Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.28 ERA) has enjoyed an excellent postseason thus far, allowing one run in 6.2 innings. He shut down a desperate Yankees lineup through five innings and pitched a perfect inning in Sunday’s victory against Houston. Porcello is yielding +9.6 units. The Red Sox have won six of the last seven games in which he’s started, including beating the Yankees twice, Houston once, and Atlanta, another playoff team. In Porcello’s last trip to Houston, he allowed two runs in six innings.

Porcello relies on five different pitches with between 11 and 29 percent frequency. Lately, he’s amped his fastball usage with success. In three October outings, he hasn’t allowed a hit with his fastball even though he’s thrown it more than twice as often as any of his other pitches. Porcello relies on deception in that he lets the vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches—for example his fastball and change-up—to closely intersect, so that batters struggle to discern which pitch is leaving his hand. His fastball distinguishes itself with arm-side tail that, combined with its good location, toys with the batter’s perception of whether it will land for a strike or a ball. He places it with 28 percent frequency in the three upper- and left-most spots in the strike zone. He’s able to elevate his fastball well partly because of the high spin rate that he gives it. The spin also deceives the batter, who struggles to discern the fastball’s movement and tends to swing through or underneath it.

He has other effective pitches at his disposal, above all a change-up that yields a .231 opposing BA and a sinker that yields a .215 opposing BA. Both thrive on deception through closely intersecting release points. Both are elusive with strong arm-side movement. But his sinker distinguishes itself from his change-up with greater dip and greater velocity. This distinction is important because the difference between his pitches forces the batter to attempt a larger adjustment with his swing after he waits to discern which pitch is approaching him. Porcello also locates both pitches well. He most frequently places his sinker on the outermost horizontal periphery of the zone and keeps his change-up with 40 percent frequency in the four lowest, right-most spots in the zone.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brock knows. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DoDamage?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#DoDamage</a> <a href="https://t.co/eQyMtV0z0l">pic.twitter.com/eQyMtV0z0l</a></p>&mdash; Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) <a href=" ">16. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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Houston’s Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13 ERA) hasn’t pitched in this postseason yet. He has thrown only four innings since September 15. Consequently, he could be rusty. But even if he isn’t rusty, he’s in a bad spot today. Houston is yielding -2 units in his home starts and has lost in his last three home starts against postseason teams—the last victory came against lowly Cleveland in May.

Morton distinguishes himself with velocity. His fastball is his most frequent pitch and he throws it with average 96 mph. His sinker is his second-most frequent pitch and it averages 95 mph. Both pitches comprise 60 percent of his arsenal. Morton’s style makes him a bad match-up for the Red Sox, who rank fifth in slugging against high-velo (94-99 mph) pitches. Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez slug over .500 against them. Holt has been having a surprisingly strong postseason, slugging 1.000 so far in 10 at-bats and he’s primed to continue his success.

Because of the strong match-up, Boston has been a thorn in Morton’s side. In Houston, Boston achieved six runs in 5.1 innings against him in June. In 101 career at-bats against him, Boston batters hit .347 and slug .574. Bogaerts is 7-for-14 with two doubles and two homers. Andrew Benintendi is 4-for-10 with a double and a homer.
 
I hope you are correct Vircav. But if Hou loses this game they are in a pretty big hole. Thus you will most likely get a max effort out of all. And Morton when on is pretty dam good. Although his better games seem to come on the road
 
I hope you are correct Vircav. But if Hou loses this game they are in a pretty big hole. Thus you will most likely get a max effort out of all. And Morton when on is pretty dam good. Although his better games seem to come on the road

Optimism BJ, leggo :)
 
I hope you are correct Vircav. But if Hou loses this game they are in a pretty big hole. Thus you will most likely get a max effort out of all. And Morton when on is pretty dam good. Although his better games seem to come on the road

so BOS isn't trying? It's not like they're in the trenches vs Alabama, it's baseball. And teams in must-wins perform worse than those that aren't

And Morton who will give way to 3+ innings of the HOU bullpen? Sign me up at +144
 
Ump here is why it's 20 cents too high for Astros. But it may be warranted. Huge swing and just the man for an Astros win.
 
so BOS isn't trying? It's not like they're in the trenches vs Alabama, it's baseball. And teams in must-wins perform worse than those that aren't

And Morton who will give way to 3+ innings of the HOU bullpen? Sign me up at +144

Recent example: Yanks who had always crushed Porcello in New York made him look like Kershaw in his postseason opener vs Atlanta
 
Steve Pearce will get another start at first base Wednesday night in Game 4 of the ALCS with the Red Sox facing Astros right-hander Charlie Morton.

Lefties Rafael Devers and Brock Holt will also get starts with Ian Kinsler and Eduardo Nunez being available off the bench.

Christian Vazquez will catch Red Sox starter Rick Porcello.

Here's the complete Red Sox lineup.

Mookie Betts, RF

Andrew Benintendi, LF

J.D. Martinez, DH

Xander Bogaerts, SS

Rafael Devers, 3B

Steve Pearce, 1B

Brock Holt, 2B

Christian Vazquez, C

Jackie Bradley Jr., CF

Rick Porcello, RHP
 
Porcello rest is weird cause of inning in game last, but otherwise extra is very good for him, but he is better day. He did well at minute maid once this year, but 2 other times was hit hard. Hit hard at home by stros this year
 
The way these pens look not sure how we don’t take an over in game 5. I know it’s JV going but if they get his pitch count up that pen is a mess, and we got Price on the other side who def will give up runs and even if they have a lead do you really trust them to hold it? Even Kimbrel looks shakey as fuck
 
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