February Discussion NCAAM

Discussion in 'COLLEGE BASKETBALL (NCAAB)' started by Johnnyonthespot, Feb 2, 2018.

Bet at 5dimes
  1. VirginiaCavs

    VirginiaCavs CTG's Resident Expert on Chucky Dolls

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2017
    Messages:
    7,653
    Likes Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Good points but big line movement for Oregon despite % of wagers for UW. Just scares me
     
  2. 2daBank

    2daBank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2012
    Messages:
    2,260
    Likes Received:
    323
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Honestly I don't really believe or read anything into those bet percentage numbers. No clue if they accurate, more importantly even if they are it doesn't really mean anything to me.

    I've always been of the belief the line either moves because injury/player info or because money moved it. I've never been 1 to think just cause someone betting more makes them any smarter or more likely to know outcome than me :)
     
    VirginiaCavs likes this.
  3. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Played some early totals

    u136/-104 GT
    u132/-110 Clemson
     
  4. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Stanford u144/-105
     
  5. Marsski

    Marsski MAC Marvel

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2006
    Messages:
    2,339
    Likes Received:
    118
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Nice call mate.
     
    VirginiaCavs likes this.
  6. nbafan88

    nbafan88 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2009
    Messages:
    31,940
    Likes Received:
    43
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Thoughts on USC/AZ state?
     
  7. nbafan88

    nbafan88 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2009
    Messages:
    31,940
    Likes Received:
    43
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Hou 2h -5.5 -105
     
  8. VirginiaCavs

    VirginiaCavs CTG's Resident Expert on Chucky Dolls

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2017
    Messages:
    7,653
    Likes Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    113
    SMU gonna stop draining threes?
     
  9. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Oregon St u143.5/-105
     
  10. KJ

    KJ The Mayor of CTG

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    86,264
    Likes Received:
    1,381
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Sleep is important, but it's the quality that really matters

    Great night for sleep
     
  11. VirginiaCavs

    VirginiaCavs CTG's Resident Expert on Chucky Dolls

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2017
    Messages:
    7,653
    Likes Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Whats your take on waking up for antibiotics? You wake up to keep the every 8 hours guideline or you take the pill early/late to have uninterrupted sleep?
     
  12. KJ

    KJ The Mayor of CTG

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    86,264
    Likes Received:
    1,381
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Nope 6 hours is my ideal and I take nothing. Still on the downslope from Aussie Open and will deal with 3 and 4am mornings but they're getting weeded out. Just woke up so that happened

    Prefer 2-8am sleep, not close atm
     
    VirginiaCavs likes this.
  13. nbafan88

    nbafan88 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2009
    Messages:
    31,940
    Likes Received:
    43
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Arizona state -3 big
     
  14. 2daBank

    2daBank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2012
    Messages:
    2,260
    Likes Received:
    323
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Note to self, huskies offense is atrocious! lol
     
  15. 2daBank

    2daBank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2012
    Messages:
    2,260
    Likes Received:
    323
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Kinda agree. I've seen tons of guys feeling USC today, i don't see it. Like over a little bit.
     
  16. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Friday night is always a good chance to get ready for Saturday. I only focus on Power 5 otherwise I suffer. I played 2 tonight based on home/aways and my instinct.. My instinct feels better about the over but I know not to trust my instinct when it comes to NOT flat betting :)

    URI u143 /-105
    IND o144/ -105
     
  17. 2daBank

    2daBank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2012
    Messages:
    2,260
    Likes Received:
    323
    Trophy Points:
    83
    1st thing I thought when looking at this card was "Hoosiers really laying 7?!?". Then I see if their 6 conf wins 3 have been by more than that. Then I look at gophers and during this 1-9 stretch 6 have been losses by more than 7 but their last 2 against superior squads (3 point ot loss at michigan and a 6 point home loss to Nebraska). Guess that all saying the 7 point line isn't that out of whack as I kinda thought at 1st glance. Lol
     
    VirginiaCavs likes this.
  18. 2daBank

    2daBank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2012
    Messages:
    2,260
    Likes Received:
    323
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Princeton/Harvard over 131.., last 2 Harvard games they have allowed teams to hit well above their season averages from behind the arc, Princeton 37th in country taking almost 45% of their shots from 3. Harvard defensive numbers are enhanced by creating turnovers 20% of possessions and I doubt that happens here as tigers tops in ivy at valuing the rock. Tigers defense been sloppy and Harvard has been stroking it from behind the arc. Little scary cause obviously not gonna have much up and down as both play slow half court games so we gonna need execution and shot making to get us here but I don't think that a unreasonable ask at all. Always think it a little telling when books come in a handful of points above KP projections as well.

    Really debated here between side and total as Princeton +125 feels like has some value as well, I just hate playing side and total (hard enough to get 1 right, lol) , little more confident with the over as I prefer my road doggies to play little better defense than what Princeton typically offers.
     
    VirginiaCavs likes this.
  19. VirginiaCavs

    VirginiaCavs CTG's Resident Expert on Chucky Dolls

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2017
    Messages:
    7,653
    Likes Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    113
    No way Detroit keeps this shooting up in second half?
     
  20. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Looking forward to UVA game. Want to bet it but I think spread is on the money. They are cover machine and 2-10 under last 12. VAtech likes to go over, good sized dogs, spread prolly decided late, prolly some fouling. I love both these coaches. They bring it. Bring me an over goddamnit

    UVA o128 /-105
     
  21. nbafan88

    nbafan88 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2009
    Messages:
    31,940
    Likes Received:
    43
    Trophy Points:
    48
    WVU looks like bait on monday
     
  22. 2daBank

    2daBank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2012
    Messages:
    2,260
    Likes Received:
    323
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Think the total dropping has created little bit of value on the over. 2 most efficient offenses in big-12 play, wvu shot freaking horrid the 1st meeting (as in 37% from inside the arc and 26% behind it) and they still managed to combine for 155!! Gotta believe those will both increase significantly at home vs a pretty awful tcu defense (as in 283rd in country effective fg percentages against!). Both got a ton of offensive boards the 1st meeting and don't see much reason there not a bunch more 2nd chance points here. Frogs have best turnover percentage in big 12, don't turn it over vs wvu and you can usually get good looks. Should be a bunch of fts again, wvu fouls a ton tcu not as bad but not great in big-12 play either. I think the 160 opener was much closer to where this ends up that the 153.5 it currently at now. Especially like it if you correct and game closer than spread.
     
  23. 2daBank

    2daBank Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2012
    Messages:
    2,260
    Likes Received:
    323
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Doesn't that unc line seem really high? Laying dd to Irish in 3rd game in 5 days?
     
    VirginiaCavs likes this.
  24. VirginiaCavs

    VirginiaCavs CTG's Resident Expert on Chucky Dolls

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2017
    Messages:
    7,653
    Likes Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    113
    And coming off very emotional win
     
  25. pressitup

    pressitup Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2006
    Messages:
    7,808
    Likes Received:
    314
    Trophy Points:
    83
    I'll bet the ETSU/NCG game is going to be a good one.
     
  26. pressitup

    pressitup Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2006
    Messages:
    7,808
    Likes Received:
    314
    Trophy Points:
    83
    I'm on ETSU +130
     
  27. nbafan88

    nbafan88 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2009
    Messages:
    31,940
    Likes Received:
    43
    Trophy Points:
    48
  28. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Tar Heels 10-2 over at home, ND 3-5 road. Brey cant run tonight, he doesnt have the ponys. big time peeps on over. ND just played 2 high scoring games at home. I dont think so tonight. Played to 137 at ND 68-69 nd loss 1/13

    u72/-100
    u152/-105
     
  29. pressitup

    pressitup Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2006
    Messages:
    7,808
    Likes Received:
    314
    Trophy Points:
    83
  30. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    UNC 2nd half -5.5 /-110
     
  31. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
  32. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
  33. GWarner27

    GWarner27 Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2008
    Messages:
    10,716
    Likes Received:
    26
    Trophy Points:
    48
    curious on your Mizzou thots with TAMU down to Starks and Gilder in the backcourt
     
  34. GWarner27

    GWarner27 Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2008
    Messages:
    10,716
    Likes Received:
    26
    Trophy Points:
    48
    brutal
     
    VirginiaCavs likes this.
  35. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    We had it covered for 45 minutes. What can you do.

    I like the Mizzou chemistry. Would be wild if Porter came back. Will research. Happy Tuesday.
     
    VirginiaCavs likes this.
  36. VirginiaCavs

    VirginiaCavs CTG's Resident Expert on Chucky Dolls

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2017
    Messages:
    7,653
    Likes Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Any MW guys here? Caleb Martin injury could be huge
     
  37. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Random comment. I hate Frank Martin. He is a freak. Last year was aberration. He is meaner than me when I feel mean. Dudes must hate him. Grabbing Bowen is the type of dude he is. They got amazing recruit cause Frank is so earnest in the family room but insane as a leader. Fade this team, fade this man.

    Another man to fade is Fran McCaffrey. He is a freak and a loser too. Iowa needs to dump his frumpy aunt ass.

    :)
     
  38. Timh

    Timh CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2006
    Messages:
    21,319
    Likes Received:
    218
    Trophy Points:
    63
    I don't like McCaffrey, he is definitely fade material can't coach defense....
     
  39. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Iowa St only avg at home this year, Kansas better on road, jayhawks off loss and have grueling stretch to conf tourney. I will fade Iowa St off OK rout and their injury issues
    Kansas -7 /-107

    About to jump on Missouri bandwagon. Gwarner brings up great point. A&M is short 3 guards

    Mizz -2.5/ -102

    Georgetown best in BE on road and have been playing better, kind of like st johns
    Butler best at home in BE

    If I was a grandmaster I I would play Butler -12 and GT +650
     
  40. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Kansas best under in Big 12 on road. u152.5/-105
     
  41. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Interesting how UVA total has moved up and short line in Lincoln.
     
  42. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Mizzou u139 /-105

    a&m got no playmaking
     
  43. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    For those that missed Georgetown at +660, available at half for +250. We are gambling
     
  44. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Going to listen to UVA game. Started with Miami u26.5 1st half.
     
  45. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    UVA 2nd half o63/-110
     
  46. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Bama 2nd half o76/-110
     
  47. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Clemson is poor away 2-5. FSU 6-3 home. Tonight Grantham loss is obvious. I like Noles to roll
    FSU -4.5/-107
     
  48. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Thinking on VT/Duke They were toying with GT. VT off big win. Kind of think Duke crushes. Bagley out again. IIf I was to play VT it would be +480 but I dont think so
     
  49. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    In Duke loss, they also lossed Alvarado that I think is overrated but played 2 tall frosh that were pretty good that got zero run before. Wake has injuries too. All this evil Pastner nonsense, I think GT plays with new attitude. Season is almost done let us be a little freer. If they dont win, they get crushed and season is done.

    GT sucks on road and wake sucks at home, so there is that too

    GT +5.5/-105 & ML +210
     
  50. Johnnyonthespot

    Johnnyonthespot Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    474
    Trophy Points:
    83
    NC State 1-5 away

    Syracuse making a push

    cuse -5.5/-108
     

Share This Page