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Euro Cup 2020 Futures Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
UEFA Predictions for 2020


Betting On A Winner

To pick a winner, we need to rule out the most-favored candidates:

Belgium:

Belgium does flex its generational talent when it scores nine goals against San Marino.

But Belgium’s lack of chemistry does not produce a greater whole than the sum of its talented individual parts when it faces any good opponents — with the most recent examples coming in a 1-0 loss to France in the World Cup and a 3-1 loss to Wales in the last Euro Cup.

The Belgians are held back by Roberto Martinez, who is not a title-winning manager.

After repeatedly getting sacked on the club-level, Martinez somehow lucked his way into the Belgian job.

One flaw that he is famous for is his tactical inflexibility. He wants to stick with what does not work even though it is not working.

France:

It is extremely rare for a team to follow up a World Cup title with a European championship as it’s tempting after winning a title to relax and lose focus.

Only France in 2000 and Spain in 2012 have ever completed the task.

France, also, has been placed in the Group of Death with Germany and Portugal.

Germany has rediscovered success. winning its group in qualifiers. It’s discovered a positive partnership in the midfield between Tony Kroos and Joshua Kimmich.

Julian Brandt, a rare bright spot in 2018, is agile and imaginative going forward. A reliable goall-scorer, Serge Gnabry has produced 13 goals in 13 appearances for Germany.

For Portugal, Ronaldo, always the best man on the pitch, will look to finish strong in what may be his last international tournament.

To bet on France to win it all when it’s very possible that it doesn’t win its group (let alone earn first place) seems misguided to me.

England

England has a significant problem defending. The weakness at the centerback position has been evident in qualifiers against Kosovo, which scored three goals, and against Czech Republic, which beat England 2-1, and in the Nations League in Holland’s 3-1 victory over England.

It is anyone’s guess as to who will form the two pieces of the centerback partnership as no two players are able to separate themselves from an unconvincing group.

Looking at the attack, stronger opponents are able to account for Harry Kane — for example, in England’s final two World Cup matches — against Sweden and Croatia — Kane did not score.

And England is too reliant on Kane, who accrued as many goals in the World Cup as all of his teammates combined.

There’s too little support in putting the ball in the net with one frustrating example being Raheem Sterling who is incessantly a poor finisher on the international stage.

My Pick: The Netherlands

The Netherlands are on the rise, having lost only to England in Ronald Koeman’s managerial debut, France, Portugal, and Germany, which it has beaten twice in the past 12 months.

Holland is solid in the back with Virgil van Dijk, who was the runner-up for the Ballon d’Or, which is extremely rare for a defender to win (the last one having done so in 2006).

Matthijs de Ligt benefits from partnering with van Dijk. Now at Juventus, he distinguishes himself with his physicality and aerial prowess.

In the midfield, Georginio Wijnaldum ably identifies spaces to attack even while the opponent is pressing. He’s energetic and imaginative going forward.

As a passer, he’s always extremely accurate — his pass accuracy is 91% in the Premiere League this season.

So he has the physicality to protect possession by shielding defenders and the agility and creativity to excel in attack.

One attacker to note is Memphis Depay, who scored six goals during Qualifiers, two fewer than Wijnaldum. Depay is always a threat from the left with his pace and in general with his shooting ability.

Favorite Group Bets

England To Win Group D

England’s only real competitor in the group is a Croatian side whose top players are declining. After Mario Mandzukic’s retirement, the attack is experiencing a youth movement.

Croatia’s defense has contributed to the bumpiness of its qualifiers, which included a 2-1 loss to Hungary.

England’s midfielder problem is overstated with Jordan Henderson acclimating himself to an increased attacker role in Liverpool. He brings great passing range.

The English feature a lot of energetic options going forward like the youthful Marcus Rashford and the similarly pacy Raheem Sterling.

Turkey To Win Group A

Favored Italy continues to showcase inconsistency at the striker position with guys like Ciro Immobile and Andrea Belotti incessantly underachieving at the international level with low goal rates extremely inflated by cupcake opponents.

Scoring will anyhow come difficult against a consistent Turkish squad that allowed only three goals and achieved eight clean sheets during qualifiers with a strong backline that measured up to France’s attack both times.

Going forward look for Cenk Gosun, a playmaker with 16 goals in 40 appearances, distinguishing himself with his physicality.

Best Bets: Netherlands To Win Euro Cup +650 with BetOnline
England To Win Group D -250 with BetOnline
Turkey To Win Group A +600 with BetOnline
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Perhaps a bit early. I‘ll bump this up in June.

I obviously don‘t know as much as our soccer experts. I hope they chime in and we can get great discussion going.
 
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dylanphan

Well-Known Member
Depay just had ACL surgery and is out 5-6 months. IF he is back for Euro2020, he will have been out of action for a long spell.
I feel that the Dutch are a tick or two below the top countries, but hell, if Portugal can win it, I guess anyone can and Dutch do have a ton of young talent.

I think Germany is a great price at +850/+900. I think this team is coming into the tournament with a huge chip on it's shoulders and learned from it's mistake from last tournament when they failed to bring on younger/pacey guys like Sane and instead opted for the old guard/veterans. They have a world class coach, and a massive amount of talent everywhere. Only issue of course is their group as they must get through the likes of Portugal and France - obviously one of these big three is not getting through.

England way too short here, especially with Kane tearing his hammy. Don't get me wrong, a front of Sterling/Rashford and Sancho will throw fits against any other side still, but I just don't see this team winning it all. I haven't delved into them too much, but I'm not backing a country at 4/1 or so unless they are solid everywhere, which England isn't.

I kinda still like France too. TBH, I think France and Germany will handle Portugal without too much issue and play each other to a draw or something.

still quite a bit away though here.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
I think Germany has a huge problem at centerback and this was evident in qualifiers like in the 4-2 loss to Holland. Magnified by Niklas Süle‘s season-ending injury.
 

dylanphan

Well-Known Member
Losing Sule is definitely massive, but so long as Boateng is left off the squad, I think they can make due. Or they can switch to a back 3 as they already utilize Kimmich in midfield. They have great holding/defensive midfielders in the like of Can and Gundogan and Rudiger has really turned into a solid player at Chelsea.
Agree that this team is vulnerable, but again, so much talent and they are a ball control, put the pedal to the metal run club that their deficincies will be tough to exploit.
at nearly 9/1 you're getting a great price - if they get through group, they will certainly be one of the favorites.
 

dylanphan

Well-Known Member
And again, it's very very early to handicap. Injuries are almost certainly going to happen across Europe as the heat of the league, CL, cup ties are all still months to go.
 
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