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Early Masters Discussion

Interested to see what the odds/matchups for Spieth will be in a couple of weeks. He is totally lost right now, seems like Augusta will either help him find what's been missing, or completely eat him up
 
Played a Poulter 85-1 ticket in early January. I'll likely be on Rahm too.

Rory answered some of this Sunday bugaboos at Sawgrass. He just now needs to stay away from being paired up with Tiger.

Agreed with GPS on Spieth. He is playing Valero this week though. Going to be watching him closely.
 
I will be watxhing Speith as well.
The way he putted on Sunday last year was brilliant. Augusta will either start putting the dirt on top of his grave or give him some confidence and maybe jump start his game
 
I went ahead and posted the Top 50, in case someone makes a jump into the Top 30.

But Top 30 is the key stat
 
This stat was before the 2018 Master.....

All 12 of the previous winners made the cut the previous year
*Reed did not make the cut in 2017

7 of the past 12 winners had shot 67 or better at least once, and 23 of the past 25 had shot in the 60’s.
*Reed never shot below 70 previously

The past 12 winner had all finished in the top 38 at least once before, and 9 had finished top 20
*Reed finished T22 in 2015

Only 6 of the last 13 finished top 10 the year before

Each of the last 12 winners had won at least 3 times on the US or European Tour, and all had won in the 12 months prior. On 3 had won that calendar year. However, 11 of the 12 had finished in the top 10 at least once that calendar year.

11 of the last 13 were ranked in the world top 30, and 8 were in the top 20.
*Patrick Reed was ranked 24 before the 2018 Masters
(List Below in next above)


The last world #1 to win was Eldrick in 2005
 
Last edited:
This stat was before the 2018 Master.....

All 12 of the previous winners made the cut the previous year
*Reed did not make the cut in 2017

7 of the past 12 winners had shot 67 or better at least once, and 23 of the past 25 had shot in the 60’s.
*Reed never shot below 70 previously

The past 12 winner had all finished in the top 38 at least once before, and 9 had finished top 20
*Reed finished T22 in 2015

Only 6 of the last 13 finished top 10 the year before

Each of the last 12 winners had won at least 3 times on the US or European Tour, and all had won in the 12 months prior. On 3 had won that calendar year. However, 11 of the 12 had finished in the top 10 at least once that calendar year.

11 of the last 13 were ranked in the world top 30, and 8 were in the top 20.
*Patrick Reed was ranked 24 before the 2018 Masters
(List Below in next above)


The last world #1 to win was Eldrick in 2005

Here’s my DK/betting lineup
OWGR
Koepka 4
Molinari 7
Day 14
Matsuyama 26
Poulter 33
Bjerregaard 42

3xwinner+last 12 months
Koepka
Molinari
Day
Matsuyama* (Has not won in 2 years)
Poulter
Bjerregaard* (2x Portugal masters/Alfred dunhill)

Top 20 and made last cut at Augusta
Koepka T11
Molinari T20
Day T20
Matsuyama T19

All have shot in 60’s except for the guy from Denmark. Got tired of writing midway but hope this helps
 
Here’s my DK/betting lineup
OWGR
Koepka 4
Molinari 7
Day 14
Matsuyama 26
Poulter 33
Bjerregaard 42

3xwinner+last 12 months
Koepka
Molinari
Day
Matsuyama* (Has not won in 2 years)
Poulter
Bjerregaard* (2x Portugal masters/Alfred dunhill)

Top 20 and made last cut at Augusta
Koepka T11
Molinari T20
Day T20
Matsuyama T19

All have shot in 60’s except for the guy from Denmark. Got tired of writing midway but hope this helps
Welcome!
 
I gotta tell ya, I usually use a few different books for my golf betting / futures. I might reload at Bookmaker after seeing some of these prices, they are absolutely great. I am not trying to shill for a sponsor, but they are one of the best of the business and their golf numbers and options are outstanding.




Click here for terrific golf betting options
 
I gotta tell ya, I usually use a few different books for my golf betting / futures. I might reload at Bookmaker after seeing some of these prices, they are absolutely great. I am not trying to shill for a sponsor, but they are one of the best of the business and their golf numbers and options are outstanding.




Click here for terrific golf betting options

Feels like the last two years we’ve seen a major shift in odds from the books. I have seen so many golfers under the +2000 threshold and it really impacts strategy. Rory at +750 is unreal
 
Feels like the last two years we’ve seen a major shift in odds from the books. I have seen so many golfers under the +2000 threshold and it really impacts strategy. Rory at +750 is unreal
You are absolutely right. This gets compounded at a place like Augusta as well where so many of the same names are in the mix.
 
Now, way back in the day (I sound like an old man), Woods was +250/+200 etc quite often. I almost feel like at the end of the Tiger Slam he was near +100 for that Masters.
 
I'm thinking about fading Patrick Reed as much as I can. Before last year, he'd never finished in the top 20 and he is in pretty terrible form right now. I've got him matched up with Kisner and Stenson, though the price on Stenson is a little higher than my comfort zone (-140). Might look at miss the cut props once my book releases them
 
I'm thinking about fading Patrick Reed as much as I can. Before last year, he'd never finished in the top 20 and he is in pretty terrible form right now. I've got him matched up with Kisner and Stenson, though the price on Stenson is a little higher than my comfort zone (-140). Might look at miss the cut props once my book releases them


Agree 100%
 
Two tournament match ups I've played so far:

Grace -115 vs Holmes
Molinari -115 vs Spieth

Fades on both players is my reasoning here. Reed seems like a great fade candidate as well...

Year in and year out, by far my favorite event if the year. I'M JACKED UP and it's only Monday.... Looking forward to hearing more thoughts and discussion... Let's come up with some great plays...
 
I don't know that I can fade Spieth at Augusta. Can't bet on him either. Literally no finish for him will surprise me, from last to first
 
Spieth is a total wild card. If you like him, Thurs and Fri at SA should help your cause. He had a chance to get out of the group at the Match Play, but he STB his last match vs Bubba, who was already eliminated.

I personally don't trust him now for 4 rounds, last week was at least encouraging. I would play Molinari -115 vs him.
 
Also not a fan of Reed. I'm a little cautious on playing any of the top guys to miss the cut, just because at least 50 guys make the cut, more if they stay within 10 shot rule. 86 guys? are in the field. So math wise it's a whole lot easier to make this cut than just about any other tourney.
 
Also not a fan of Reed. I'm a little cautious on playing any of the top guys to miss the cut, just because at least 50 guys make the cut, more if they stay within 10 shot rule. 86 guys? are in the field. So math wise it's a whole lot easier to make this cut than just about any other tourney.
Big big point about the cut
 
Matchups:

Kisner +130 vs Reed
Stenson +105 vs Reed
Walker -115 vs Conners
JT -110 vs Rahm
 
Grace at 20-1 in "rear of the world" category looks tempting...

Added Sneds -115 vs SW Kim... Very spotty year for Kim and that injury late in the round Sunday may have some lingering effects
 
Rahm +1600
Molinari +2050
Leishman +4550

Top American: Rickie +850
Top Aussie: Leishman +275
Top Debut: Keith Mitchell +750
Top Rest of the World: Leishman +705
Top Scandinavian: Stenson +115

Rickie over JT +120
Kisner +105 over Cantlay
Rahm -120 over Tiger
 
Only one play so far, but really like it

J. Rose -130 over J. Thomas (Tournament)..........3.25 units to win 2.5
 
FRL:
Charles Howell
Was gonna take Rahm but don't like the pairing with Woods

First round top 5:
2× Kuchar
Fowler

Full tournament:
Top deb: Mitchell
Kuchar over Scott
 
I have backed out of poulter bad bjerregaard. Found better value imo with Rafa Cabrera bello and Jimmy Walker. Just can’t root for that douche in poulter and bjerregaard coming in last this past weekend in Houston has given me some concern. Plus it’s his first go of it at Augusta
 
Seems many fading JT....

No denying the JT is a ball-striking machine, but his putting is his weakness and I think you gotta either be just having a career ball-striking week or make your share of mid-range putts (those 5-15 footers, which is not his thing).......but my play is more of a "this is Justin Rose's time"....
 
JT hasnt seemed the same since that tree incident at the Honda. May have been my favorite before that and the subsequent roll Rory has been on.
 
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