Bet at 5dimes
%ALT_TXT%%

Deep Run Survivor Pool Strategy

scarf31

CTG Partner
Okay gang, wanted to throw this out there as some food for thought.

Entered a $50K first place survivor pool run through my personal account at MyBookie (link below)

https://mybookie.ag/?affid=2428

9577 total entries into the contest. You can purchase for $10 an entry up to 30 entries. I bought 30 entries.

We are now entering Week 11 of the Survivor Pool and there are now 93 entries remaining alive after last week's bloodbath of heavy favorites.

I have 4 of those 93 entries.

So my question(s) to you are as follows:

If it's you, how are you playing this now that you're essentially down to less than 1%.

Rules state that if you run the table and multiple winners exists (going 17-0) then the prize gets split equally.

But now, I'm holding almost 5% of all remaining entries....I've got some thoughts on this, but if it were you, how would YOU play it for weeks 11 to 17 being in my position?

FYI, all 4 entries have the exact same 10 teams taken already....I can check the account shortly and list who I've taken....but I wanted to get the CTG audience's thoughts about this....strategies, things to do, things to not do....etc.

All comments are welcome...
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
Here is the list of teams I still have available for the next 7 weeks:

Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles Rams
Miami Dolphins
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle Seahawks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tennessee Titans
Washington Redskins
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
There’s the school of thought go 4 more weeks selecting just one team. Pray to get through. Then if so, put 2 teams against each other the last 3 weeks and guarantee a prize.

I mean, I’ve finally hit the time where strategy is a big part of the gameplan. Especially holding 5% of the remaining entries essentially.
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
I assume you can tell who the others have picked, correct?
After the week ends, yes.

To be honest 87% of the pool was eliminated last week so I don’t know exactly when they release a players’ picks. I assume they only update everything once weekly to show who survived and what teams they took
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
After the week ends, yes.

To be honest 87% of the pool was eliminated last week so I don’t know exactly when they release a players’ picks. I assume they only update everything once weekly to show who survived and what teams they took
I gotcha.

Obviously New Orleans and Indianapolis killed a bunch off.

I was just curious if you had a spreadsheet yet? ;)
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
Went all in on all 4 entries with Oakland on Sunday. Only 1 person got knocked out.

Week 12 4 entries alive - 92 remain - 50k first place

Teams I have available for this week

Indy
Houston
Miami
Cleveland
Denver
Pittsburgh
Cincy
Giants
Jets
Panthers
Saints
Bucs
Falcons
Lions
Redskins
Seahawks
Jaguars
Titans
Rams

Not a super great slate, but it's getting down to the nitty gritty time here.
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
13% of the pool knocked out yesterday with Raiders, Lions and Falcons

4 entries I played:

2 - Browns
2- Titans

So looking like 4 left out of approximately 80. Saints, Jets, Panthers all on the "first look list" for the upcoming week.
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
79 remaining - 4 entries still alive

This week early gut says split between 2 Panthers and 2 Chiefs - With switch back to Dalton and Jets on road, I scratched that one off...

Still time to ponder though...
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
Split my picks between 2 Panthers and 2 Chiefs.....54% of the field was eliminated yesterday.

Not official until tomorrow, but down to 37-39 and I have 2 active entries still alive.
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
34 remaining - 2 entries left

Going to split the entries as I have previously.....Texans and Titans at first glance...getting interesting......
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
How many did he start with?
Max number to purchase was 30, so I have to assume he got 30, like I did. But to have 10 still alive now is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard. Odds are astronomical to be able to do that.
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
Splitsville in Week 14.

Texans knocked out a quarter of the field. Played Texans and Titans.

One entry left. 25 remaining. $50K to the winner

And the guy who has 10 entries left last week, out of the 34....

He went 10-0.

Crunch time here, gang...
 

takeit

THE Wife
How did he go 10-0? seriously... he didn't have the Texans wth at least one of those pics? What is his strategy?

That is crazy
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
How did he go 10-0? seriously... he didn't have the Texans wth at least one of those pics? What is his strategy?

That is crazy
it’s unbelievable. This past week he had 7 packers entries and 3 Vikings entries.

Bottom line is in my mind (assuming nobody else loses) if I can go 3-0, I lock up $2k (50k split 25 ways).

Amd more so, if I go 2-0 and can get to week 17, I can even hedge and lock in a profit betting my biggest available fave in the pool and on the ML with one of my books.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
it’s unbelievable. This past week he had 7 packers entries and 3 Vikings entries.

Bottom line is in my mind (assuming nobody else loses) if I can go 3-0, I lock up $2k (50k split 25 ways).

Amd more so, if I go 2-0 and can get to week 17, I can even hedge and lock in a profit betting my biggest available fave in the pool and on the ML with one of my books.
Okay, so this ends after 17 weeks no matter what?
 

takeit

THE Wife
You think something shady is going on? I wonder - how many has he lost by week? How he didn't have one Houston last week is beyond me.
 

scarf31

CTG Partner
You think something shady is going on? I wonder - how many has he lost by week? How he didn't have one Houston last week is beyond me.
I don't think something shady is going on actually. He had the ability to bet against Dwayne Haskins and David Blough on the road....can't kill the guy for that. Think he's just on an insane run.


Maybe he’s already used Houston in each of them?
Believe it or not, Larry...he had only used Houston in 3 of his 10 entries. The guy is just running good. I have no hate. I'm just looking to go 3-0 and lock up a profit
 
Top