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Chiefs vs Broncos Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Chiefs vs Broncos: Week 7 NFL Picks Thursday Night Football



Kansas City is enduring an 0-2 SU and ATS slide and gets only a short week of preparation in which to solve its problems.

A big problem for Kansas City comes on offense. The Chiefs are one-dimensional, relying super heavily on quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Last week, for example, KC’s leading rusher only amassed eight carries while Mahomes threw 35 times.

Looking at Mahomes statistically, he completed less than 60 percent of his passes in each of his past two games, while his average of eight yards per attempt is down 1.1 YPA from his season average.

Mahomes is not the same since he hurt his ankle in KC’s loss against Indianapolis two weeks ago. A big source of Mahomes’ threat derived from his ability to make plays happen when things around him broke down. He loses a lot of that ability by becoming less mobile.

His lack of mobility is all the more problematic given the status of Kansas City’s offensive line. Its protection unit is beleaguered without the presence of starting left tackle Eric Fisher. As a team, the Chiefs rank second-to-last in adjusted sack rate allowed.

While KC’s offensive line trends downwards, Denver’s defensive line is trending upwards. Denver’s season stats still look terrible because they reflect the start of Denver’s season under its new coaching staff. But the Broncos’ pass rush has been dominant in two of its last three games. Most recently, the Broncos amassed seven sacks and 10 quarterback hits in their shutout defeat of Tennessee.

The other big problem with Kansas City is that it can’t stop the run. The Chiefs rank 30th in opposing YPC.

In Denver, the Chiefs get a run-first opponent that’s anchored by what’s easily one of the more effective run-blocking units as Denver ranks fifth in adjusted line yards. Denver’s running backs are also relatively capable as they are one of the better ball-carrying units in the second level and in the open field.

Denver’s ground game consists in a two-headed monster named Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Lindsay gets a bit more attention in the ground game and he averages 4.7 YPC. Freeman has played an increasing role out of the backfield and he and Lindsay share about an equal number of targets.

KC’s second-biggest problem on defense is its helplessness against the short passing game. An example comes in its last game against Houston. According to next-gen stats, 20 of Deshaun Watson’s 30 pass completions came within five yards of the line of scrimmage.

Bronco receivers are extremely agile. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton rank above the 95th percentile in PFF's agility score, which helps them quickly gain separation and be reliable targets in Denver’s short passing game.

In other words, the Broncos possess the personnel to keep Mahomes off the field and thereby help to keep him out of rhythm. Kansas City, because of its defensive woes, has been one of the worst teams in winning the battle for time of possession.

The result is a self-perpetuating cycle where Kansas City’s defense can’t stop the run and gets progressively weaker as the game goes on as its opponent gets to run more plays and to keep tiring out the Chiefs’ defense.

Moreover, the spot is bad for Kansas City as visiting road teams tend to have a tough time on Thursday night. Denver gets to camp at home for a second consecutive week while the Chiefs travel on a short week. Dating to last season, the home team is 13-4 SU on Thursday night.

While the Chiefs are favored, I think Denver can win straight-up given its spot and match-up situation. I’ll gladly take the free points and parlay Denver ATS with an „under“ because Denver’s offense doesn’t have much firepower, will let a lot of clock run, and will keep KC’s offense in check.

Best Bet: Parlay at +301 odds: Denver +3.5 and under 50.5 at Bookmaker
 
I forget... do you write these up based on what you believe or on what your editors want the outcome to be?
 
Chiefs are an absolute dumpster fire in all phases right now. Even our special teams which is nearly always top of the league with Dave Toub is bad. Kickoff Returns stink, Butker missed a FG and we have a penalty on almost every return.

Denver off 2 straight covers and Fangio finally has the D playing well (got better when Chubb got hurt, weird). Chiefs refuse to run the ball, can't protect 15, and we can't stop anyone on the ground.

Last year when we were awesome we went to Denver on MNF and needed multiple miracles to win by 3.

Sanders left yesterday for Denver but I heard it isn't serious so he might play.
 
40 minutes and 83 plays, with a trip into the altitude on a short week right after is an absolutely brutal spot for the KC defense. The home dog and Denver TT over are both the right plays on that alone, you’re getting a shitty defense with dead legs playing in the most suboptimal situation of the year.
 
Chiefs are 0-2 since my wife bought me a Mahomes jersey for my bday. There’s already some decent reverse line movement hinting at sharp money on DEN. Pains me to say this but our division is up for grabs.
 
I actually like kc to bounce back here. Please do not put any stock in Denver beating Tennessee. My titans are an absolute disaster on offense right now, hence the 2-4 record despite giving up 15 ppg. Denver hardly did anything on offense. Flacco had under 100 yards passing, and the 2 rb had maybe 110 yards combined. Kc is a mess on d, but they will score and I don’t know that Denver can keep up. Of course bc I say this Denver prob runs for 300 yards and Miller has 4 sacks lol. Best of luck as always bro
 
Phil Lyndsey rush and rec props will be high but should be gold. I think I saw only 3 teams ever given up 185+ on the ground on 3 or 4 straight and this Chiefs D is one of them. Assuming Fangio plays it smart Denver will grind clock and keep it away from Mahomes.
 
Also this is revenge game for Denver. Lost last year’s match by 7. This year we have a better Denver team vs a weaker KC team. And Denver a home dog?
 
Flacco can't bring his team back, think the early part of this game will decide it. If DEN can jump out to a lead they may be able to hold on for dear life and win this game, even against stacked boxes, but if not KC probably prevails.

TNF is a big deal for the home team as they have more prep time, also in-division gets weird as that seems to be where the biggest headscratching upsets happen, but I still have a hard time seeing KC losing this one. Mahomes ankle does really worry me
 
Not buying revenge spot... KC has won 7 straight vs Denver. They prob were looking for similar revenge the last 6 times.

Mahomes and the ankle will be ok.. They will score...

The bigger issue is LT (Pro Bowl), LG, WR2, DT (Pro Bowl), CB1 (we will call Fuller 1), are all out (Breeland CB2 has a personal issue but is in the building).

This game reminds me of the Oakland-Chicago game... There was literally a casino with zero wagers on the Raiders an hour before gametime. I haven't seen one "sharp" or podcast or anyone with a platform taking KC tonight.

Posted elsewhere but I like the Chiefs RBs and Byron Pringle tonight in DFS.. I think Reid pulls out all the stops on this one which should include the requisite screens, misdirections and jet sweeps to keep the heat off of #15.

GL to all.
 
As what Cap said, No one had The Raiders! (Except Fan Boys Like Me Who Believe They Can Win EVERY Game, So I Drop $30 On The ML, Haha) I also agree with @Capaholic that when it comes to Reid, he'll pull out all the stops.

I don't like the short week and having to play a mile high. Only concern for KC I have.
:shake:
 
Phil Lyndsey rush and rec props will be high but should be gold. I think I saw only 3 teams ever given up 185+ on the ground on 3 or 4 straight and this Chiefs D is one of them. Assuming Fangio plays it smart Denver will grind clock and keep it away from Mahomes.
Good look
 
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