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Cfl week 3 Discussion- Odds-Injuries-

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#1
Let’s take this week 3 by storm by grabbing the collar of the shirt as if we are roughing someone up.

It’s our time to dominate the cfl.

Let’s get after it like a bunch of wild cougars seeking dinner.

Arouhhhhhhhhh ( Cougar roar)
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#2
Only game I have targeted at open is Hamilton.
I think winnipeg and it’s rookie qb have prospered against 2 defences that we’re supposed to be good but are now shown to be overrated.
Winnipeg playing 2 eastern games back to back.
Also Anthony Gaitor was dinged in Montreal. No word on his status yet but that would be a blow to their secondary if he’s out.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#3
Alouettes appear to be reshuffling their OL after Saturday’s debacle. Not sure how it ends up but I think it’s safe to say Xavier Fulton will not be at LT in sask.
Also Joe Burnett and John Bowman back at practice today. Depending on the number and on Collaros’ status, under may be in play there.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#5
Took the cats -4.5. Not quite as good a number as I wanted but I was prepared to fire at anything less than 6.

Total in sask is 45.5. Only 5 times in the last 10 seasons have we seen a total that low.

Other one that’s got me thinking is BC +6.5 @EDM. Lots of questions in that game for me though.

Also maybe Ottawa +7.5 @Calgary. Just not sure what We’ve seen from Ottawa is real yet though.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#7
Took the cats -4.5. Not quite as good a number as I wanted but I was prepared to fire at anything less than 6.

Total in sask is 45.5. Only 5 times in the last 10 seasons have we seen a total that low.

Other one that’s got me thinking is BC +6.5 @EDM. Lots of questions in that game for me though.

Also maybe Ottawa +7.5 @Calgary. Just not sure what We’ve seen from Ottawa is real yet though.
I was at the Ottawa game bro.

It looked pretty real to me.


However cgy is clearly in a league of their own. Their receivers are so great. They can easily win big over almost any team.

If anything Hamilton’s performance vs cgy really solidified Hamilton’s defense.

I mean they were able to contain all those receivers.

I found with Ottawa they are quite balanced between run and pass and on defense.

I wouldn’t say Ottawa is elite in any area but they are good in all areas passing running defense special teams.

And on any given night their offense can put up big numbers.

The addition of josh Johnson he was playing in the nfl on the Jaguars last season!!
Rico Murray all star last year
Kyries Hebert solid player
Louchez purify playing corner and he is firmer nfl former gator
Ottawa weak point was defense last season.

But playing vs cgy is like betting vs Alabama? Always a tough bet
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#8
Over 54.5 in Edmonton might be good too. Not sure if either one of those teams can stop each other.
I could agree with this.

It shouldn’t be hard for Edmonton to get into the thirties vs bc.
Bc could score in the twenties for sure.

Edmonton defense has taken a step back this season. So they will give up their points.

Bc offense should be better this season and be able to score more points.

Edmonton offense should have success vs defense because they scout film and watch for tendencies on the bc defense.
Edm coach often picks on bc defensive backs who he sees cheating on film.

You will see long Edmonton passes completed from film study.
Bc also if they don’t get pressure on Reilly are toast because they play very soft zone defense.

Even Drew Willy was completing wide open long passes vs them early.

However bc does have new personnel. 4 former edm players on defense and taller defensive backs.

Gary Peters Otha foster marcell young and Odell Willis.

So I believe bc defense has more talent now because ED HERBEY got rid of all Wally buonod players and brought in his own players.

The question is will these new players make much of a difference to offset the incompetence of the bc coaching staff ??
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#9
Pretty much agree with everything you said about BC/EDM.

I see 2 defenses that are way below average right now. BC made wholesale changes in the DL and secondary and while the talent is there, it is going to take some time to come together. They even made Drew Willy look like a halfway competent QB in week 1 with their lack of pressure. As for Edmonton, they were supposed to be good on paper but with a number of injuries, they just look lost right now. Masoli was able to find open receiver after open receiver last week. We know Reilly can score and Jonathan Jennings is a mobile QB who can break contaiment and never hesitates to throw downfield on the run (for better or worse). Long term forecast shows a nice night for football. I see a 33-27 classic western shootout type game here.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#10
I was at the Ottawa game bro.

It looked pretty real to me.


However cgy is clearly in a league of their own. Their receivers are so great. They can easily win big over almost any team.

If anything Hamilton’s performance vs cgy really solidified Hamilton’s defense.

I mean they were able to contain all those receivers.

I found with Ottawa they are quite balanced between run and pass and on defense.

I wouldn’t say Ottawa is elite in any area but they are good in all areas passing running defense special teams.

And on any given night their offense can put up big numbers.

The addition of josh Johnson he was playing in the nfl on the Jaguars last season!!
Rico Murray all star last year
Kyries Hebert solid player
Louchez purify playing corner and he is firmer nfl former gator
Ottawa weak point was defense last season.

But playing vs cgy is like betting vs Alabama? Always a tough bet

Also agree with this. Ottawa looked legit last week. Noel Thorpe has the defense playing aggressive and Trevor Harris looked solid all game long which he rarely did last season. But that was against a mediocre Saskatchewan team without their biggest offensive playmaker and a sub-par CB (both being Duron Carter). I'd like to see Ottawa play this good in B2B weeks and the STamps should be a good test.

I made the line in that one 6 so its enticing to see it on the other side of the 7 but I am going to think about it for now. I wouldn't blame you if you hit it.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#11
Pretty much agree with everything you said about BC/EDM.

I see 2 defenses that are way below average right now. BC made wholesale changes in the DL and secondary and while the talent is there, it is going to take some time to come together. They even made Drew Willy look like a halfway competent QB in week 1 with their lack of pressure. As for Edmonton, they were supposed to be good on paper but with a number of injuries, they just look lost right now. Masoli was able to find open receiver after open receiver last week. We know Reilly can score and Jonathan Jennings is a mobile QB who can break contaiment and never hesitates to throw downfield on the run (for better or worse). Long term forecast shows a nice night for football. I see a 33-27 classic western shootout type game here.
Totally agree. Neither of these defenses are dominant. They really don’t get pressure in the q.b and the offenses should be able to generate points.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#13
Collaros placed on the 6 game. Gotta feel for the guy.
Even with Brandon Bridge starting the green riders should still roll over Montreal.
At this point Adam sandler could play qb against Montreal and defeat them.

Not impressed with stubler defense. It’s the same defense and now the league knows it and just throws short pass after short pass vs them.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#14
Yeah Stubler is definitely a guy past his prime. I’m thinking maybe there was a reason Montreal’s DC walked out right before camp.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#15
Is it me or is Hamilton potentially seriously underrated?

Some people were pointing to Hamilton’s coaching staff as being average at best and a concern at times.

However I feel that the vastly experienced June Jones and jerry Granville along with Orlando steinhaeur who was coaching at Fresno state with Jeff tedfird.
Surely Steinhaeur must have learned a few tricks from Jeff tedford.

I think possibly this Hamilton coaching staff could be a strength.

This team has talent and coaching and solid quarterbacks.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#16
Is it me or is Hamilton potentially seriously underrated?

Some people were pointing to Hamilton’s coaching staff as being average at best and a concern at times.

However I feel that the vastly experienced June Jones and jerry Granville along with Orlando steinhaeur who was coaching at Fresno state with Jeff tedfird.
Surely Steinhaeur must have learned a few tricks from Jeff tedford.

I think possibly this Hamilton coaching staff could be a strength.

This team has talent and coaching and solid quarterbacks.
At work right now but yeah I think they are under-estimated this year as they were overestimated to start last season.
Line down to 3.5 in that game. I should’ve waited it out but am thinking about adding at that number. The Streveler hype-machine is going strong. Might even see a 3 by kickoff.
 

norwesterner

Well-Known Member
#17
Thoughts on a lighter and leaner Bo Levi in Calgary? I felt they were due to correct red zone inefficiencies in Toronto and they sure did.

Huff seems to re-load the roster with the right pieces. Feel like the 7.5 is almost asking for Ottawa money after they lit up Sask.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#18
I took Ottawa +7.5 for a half unit only. I think this will be a closer game than many imagine. I think I made the line 6 at the beginning of the week.

Calgary did look awfully scary in Toronto but the Argos defense also looked like a dead dog out there. They do have a ton of weapons though and Bo peep's throws looked a lot more accurate than in week 1 when he overthrew several receivers.

3 of the last 5 meetings between Ottawa and Calgary have gone to OT and another of those was decided by 4. I liked what I saw from Trevor Harris last week and the new-look, more aggressive Redblacks defense. The have the tools to compete on field position and keep themselves in the game. I have a feel that this game could be another close one.
 

norwesterner

Well-Known Member
#19
2nd time poster and long time lurker. Thanks for the kind reply. Seems like a good group in here.

Very good points Hulu. Redblacks have historically played the Stamps tight. Both QBs can run hot and make it look easy.

Public dogs scare me a bit, but the public is so small with the CFL. Good luck with the plays this week.

Awkward sidenote, I follow Dionte Spencer on Instagram and it's quite amazing to see his hard work result in annual improvements in his game. Reminds me of a young Chris Williams.

Lions might be a live dog this week? Might be worth a peak and decent middle opportunity to buy the Reilly comeback in 2h. Edmonton defense looks loose and new lopk Leos should be fresh.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#20
2nd time poster and long time lurker. Thanks for the kind reply. Seems like a good group in here.

Very good points Hulu. Redblacks have historically played the Stamps tight. Both QBs can run hot and make it look easy.

Public dogs scare me a bit, but the public is so small with the CFL. Good luck with the plays this week.

Awkward sidenote, I follow Dionte Spencer on Instagram and it's quite amazing to see his hard work result in annual improvements in his game. Reminds me of a young Chris Williams.

Lions might be a live dog this week? Might be worth a peak and decent middle opportunity to buy the Reilly comeback in 2h. Edmonton defense looks loose and new lopk Leos should be fresh.
Spencer is the most elusive receiver out there. Biggest deep threat him and Derel Walker.

Spencer is really good though.

Ellingsin also can burn any dB any time he chooses.

He gets open all day.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#21
2nd time poster and long time lurker. Thanks for the kind reply. Seems like a good group in here.

Very good points Hulu. Redblacks have historically played the Stamps tight. Both QBs can run hot and make it look easy.

Public dogs scare me a bit, but the public is so small with the CFL. Good luck with the plays this week.

Awkward sidenote, I follow Dionte Spencer on Instagram and it's quite amazing to see his hard work result in annual improvements in his game. Reminds me of a young Chris Williams.

Lions might be a live dog this week? Might be worth a peak and decent middle opportunity to buy the Reilly comeback in 2h. Edmonton defense looks loose and new lopk Leos should be fresh.
Agree on lions.

Edmonton has no business laying 6.5 points.

It’s too much.

Bc also has many former Eskimos returning to play Edmonton.

Should be close possible upset material
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#22
Eric Rogers is regaining his form. This guy is another Allen Pitts or Mervyn fernandez.

Rogers is just too big and rangy for the smaller cfl dbs.
He showed last week by making so many long passes completely covered.

His triple jump background is helping him win jump balls.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#23
2nd time poster and long time lurker. Thanks for the kind reply. Seems like a good group in here.

Very good points Hulu. Redblacks have historically played the Stamps tight. Both QBs can run hot and make it look easy.

Public dogs scare me a bit, but the public is so small with the CFL. Good luck with the plays this week.

Awkward sidenote, I follow Dionte Spencer on Instagram and it's quite amazing to see his hard work result in annual improvements in his game. Reminds me of a young Chris Williams.

Lions might be a live dog this week? Might be worth a peak and decent middle opportunity to buy the Reilly comeback in 2h. Edmonton defense looks loose and new lopk Leos should be fresh.
Glad you decided to join in. This forum really is a gem.

Yup Spencer is a beast. This could be his breakout year and it sure was fun to see him get the better of Duron Carter last week.

So let’s talk BC Lions. I thinking the same as you. The line should probably be 3.5 as Edmonton is banged up and has some serious deficiencies on their defense. But Reilly & co can seemingly score at will so it’s hard to fade them. I’d also like to see another solid game out of Jennings before I’m ready to back BC on the road. I opted to take the over 53.5 because I’m not sure either defense can stop these offences when they’re on. I will definitely be looking to hit the esks 2H if they falter in the first.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#24
Eric Rogers is regaining his form. This guy is another Allen Pitts or Mervyn fernandez.

Rogers is just too big and rangy for the smaller cfl dbs.
He showed last week by making so many long passes completely covered.

His triple jump background is helping him win jump balls.
Wow Swervin’ Mervyn Fernandez. That’s a blast from the past.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#26
Hulu only red flag for me is ottawa all Canadian offensive line.

They played well last week but on the road vs cgy is different. Law being out helps a lot.

Ottawa has some dudes on offense Spencer Ellingson Powell Sinopli and more dudes on defense rico Murray josh Johnson Hebert prunesu purifoy.

Cgy lost a lot of dudes on defense however they seem to reload with solid replacements.

Losing Hughes tommy Campbell deron mayo josh bell and shaq Richardson could hurt along with law and tunde being injured.

However on offense I believe cgy has improved significantly.
The addition of Eric Rogers who is the best receiver when healthy is huge. Along with emergence of Reggie bagelton davariz daniels and kamar jorden
Marquin michel also very good.

The trio of Rogers Daniels and Jorden is basically 3 number 1 receivers on the same team.

So to me cgy is still tough to beat and as witnessed in week 1 and 2 when you have an elite offense you can cover the spread quite easily.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#27
I think Bc is a live dog. I used to live there 15 years.
I followed them a lot.

With Wally it’s sinple. He basically is an old school military style coach. He micro manages and just relies on coordinators to call a good game.

Last few seasons bc offense suffered because of Khari Jones the worst offensive coordinator in the league imo. He is terrible. Montreal hires him
To run their offense and the results speak for themselves.

Now bc is being run by jariius Jackson who has had success in this league with better teams.
Now the offense will have a chance. Khari Jones runs the same garbage plays and gets all of his qbs hurt. Lulay injured Jennings injured. Etc.

Jarioys is a smart football guy.

Defensively same coordinator. Very conservative. His defense can work only if players are good. I guess you could say that with all teams.

But difference is that Ed Hervey the new gm
Added his own players and got rid of all Wally’s weak players.
Added was Odell Willis and Gabrielle knapton and Davon Coleman. All 3 guys are better than anybody we had the last 3-4 seasons.

Secondary Hersey smartly added Marcelll young a tall 6 feet corner out of Ole miss. He is physical and can cover. He also added Gary Peters at halfback who had an interception in week 1.
Also added a new free safety who looks good and a new corner named Anthony orange who looked really fast and taller.

Linebacker was a huge strength with Eliminian and add local Abbotsford native Bo lokombo after a failed nfl tryout.

Bc is a changed team with a new Gm. Wally needs talent and he needs to be just the coach. He’s like a dad on the team while other people need to figure the football stuff out. He doesent look at film etc. He is old school. He always says just beat your man. If you lose you didn’t beat your man etc .

Edmonton is undergoing too much change and injuries again

Key losses Brandon Zylstra who Led the cfl in receiving yards was a big loss. Losing the best tackle Joel Figueroa to Bc was a huge loss.

Defensively they revamped their D line losing Willis Hunt Howard and Bowers.

Edmonton is starting a Canadian corner Hoover. He looks weak to me. Getting burned for tds.

I know this line is really a straight pick em. Hulu added 3 points for home field. We are all on the same page.
Oddsmakers are not high on bc. Their season win total is 7.5 only.

Bc if they have the right coaching and talent can win under Wally Buono. Wally was the coach and Gm. The team suffered during those years because obviously a 65 year old Italian man from Canada doesent have the time energy or connections to bring in American talent.
Ed Hervey who built a grey cup winning team in less than 3 years is in bc.

I think bc is ascending. They have the right organizational structure now. This is what bc looks like when they are good.
 
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Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#28
Personally.

If I had to compare the dogs.

To me Bc Is a much stronger dog because the teams are basically even.

Edmonton is not cgy.
I would rather go vs Edmonton than cgy.
Hamilton showed us that Edmonton wasn’t too amazing while cgy is solid as they beat Hamilton easily.

I believe that Edmonton is overrated. They have a few dudes. But they lost too much from last year.

Bc gained a lot. They took Edmonton starters. 4 of them. Willis peters young Figueroa

Also you better believe that bc Gm ed hervey wants to win this game.
He was released from Edmonton after winning then a grey cup over philosophical differences. Translation he was bullied out and has a beef to settle.

I like bc to play hyper inspired football and take this match.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#30
$100 Bc moneyline +230.

$ 50 Ottawa 1st half moneyline +200
$50 Ottawa 1st half + 4.5. -110

Placing wagers after drinking a few 7% strong beers. I’m home alone with no wife kids just me first time in 8 years.
I’m back to my single degenerate days.

As Einstein said you cannot solve a problem in the same consciousness as the problem was created.
So I’m getting drunk in order to pick winners.

I feel good about all these picks.

Finding the right mix between drinking and thinking will bring you wherever you want to go!!!

Moderation is the key my homies. If we keep everything in moderation we will continue to advance moderately.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#34
With Gaitor out, the Bumblers are moving Mo Legget from SAM to DHB. I’m not sure he has the speed to cover Hamilton’s speedy inside receivers.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#36
s
Hamilton has added 6'2" receiver Rashad Lawrence to the lineup. He and Tolliver will provide some much-needed height to the cats receiving corps
Yeah they are a bit small but they all get open the smaller guys tasker banks and Samuel.

Having tolliver with another taller stud would prevent the cats from being out muscled by a physical taller defense
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#38
+4.5 is a really good number.

Its hard to really tell just from reading media reports and interviews but I get the sense this RB team is on a mission and jacked to take on the league's best. When the players believe, good things happen.
 

norwesterner

Well-Known Member
#39
Great 1h number. Love how this RB coach inspires and leads. I hope Bo Levi isn't too sharp. Part of me thinks altitude in calgary can mess with his touch. Air seems light in Calgary.

Thanks for the depth chart updates and analysis.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#40
+4.5 is a really good number.

Its hard to really tell just from reading media reports and interviews but I get the sense this RB team is on a mission and jacked to take on the league's best. When the players believe, good things happen.
They are fired up. Last week I was there. They looked confident. Made numerous interceptions injured collaros.
Ottawa is balanced. Good on offense and defense.
No real weakness anymore.

They addressed their weaknesses with free agent pick ups.
 

Sammy Meatballs

Taught Michael Jackson His First Dance Moves
#41
Great 1h number. Love how this RB coach inspires and leads. I hope Bo Levi isn't too sharp. Part of me thinks altitude in calgary can mess with his touch. Air seems light in Calgary.

Thanks for the depth chart updates and analysis.
Redblacks coach used to coach in cgy so players will play hard for him.

Levi is good but teams I find in the cfl after putting up a huge number tend to come back to earth the next game.
Ex. Levi had a bad week 1 game followed by a good week 2 game.

Reilly good week 1. Bad week 2.

I think cgy is going to get Ottawa’s best shot.
 

guaranteeed

CTG Elite Moderator
Staff member
#43
I like that edmonton bc over a lot

I agree sammy they look a live dog, but the defense worries me. Didnt think of the hervey factor that might push me that side

Extra week too
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#44
The Esks are flipping the ratio to improve the secondary by playing 4 Muricans. At receiver Bahar and Adjei get the start. This is probably a good move but their secondary is still far from good.
 

Hulu

Hulu the Hot Stepper
#45
Hamilton has added 6'2" receiver Rashad Lawrence to the lineup. He and Tolliver will provide some much-needed height to the cats receiving corps
Further to this, just read that Winnipeg doesn’t have a DB over 6’1”. This is likely why Lawrence was activated this week. And Tolliver at 6’5 should have a field day.
 
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