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Bundesliga 34. Spieltag Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Best Bundesliga Bets For Saturday Matchday



Bundesliga Matchday 34
All Games On Saturday, June 27, 2020 at 9:30 a.m. ET




FC Köln vs Werder Bremen


Odd Line


Oddsmakers have Bremen favored by a goal and I find this ridiculous.

Although, its easy to see why oddsmakers would do this.

First of all, the decision to favor Bremen can not have anything to do with the fact that Bremen is playing at home.

If you look at a table that reflects only home results, you’ll see that the Grün-Weissen are Germany’s worst home team.

They’re even worse than relegated SC Paderborn, which has two home victories to Bremen’s one (in 16 tries).

Instead, oddsmakers certainly want to capitalize on the expectation that, because Bremen needs to win whereas Köln does not need to win, Bremen should definitely win.

Standings & Situation

To be clear, Köln secured the Klassenerhalt, meaning their spot in the 1. Bundesliga, last week.

Conversely, Bremen is two points behind Düsseldorf for the playoff relegation spot. Werder is also four goals behind Düsseldorf in terms of goal difference.

I find this ‚need to win' angle intellectually very lazy and I won’t buy into it, especially when the odds are so skewed as to favor Werder by a goal.

Actually, if anything, I think Bremen is in an uncomfortable and unfavorable spot, mentally speaking, because it has to win and simultaneously has to hope that Düsseldorf loses.

Or, if Düsseldorf ties, Bremen has to win by five goals.

Whether the Bremer responds well, mentally, to their difficult situation and the prospect of their Traditionsverein being relegated for the first time since 1979/1980, the situation will work against them.

Because Werder needs many goals, it will come out aggressively, in full-blown attack mode, with guys even recklessly looking to advance forward.

Bremen’s Poor Offense

But Bremen’s desperation will not, all of a sudden, turn it into an offensively adept team.

Bremen is and will still be the same team that has mustered only nine goals at home all season, which is half as many as any other team.

One reason why Werder is so poor is that it failed to replace departed striker Max Kruse.

Kruse was a reliable scorer who produced 32 goals in 84 Bundesliga appearances and made up much of Bremen’s recent successes.

Besides lacking reliable scorers, Bremen has had problems finding consistent or positive performers in the midfield, which is really problematic for a manager who devotedly looks to control possession.

Köln’s Two-Pronged Match-up Advantage

Statistically speaking, the Kölner are one of Germany’s most dangerous teams on the counter. They excel in transition.

Trainer Markus Gisdol loves to employ speedy players like Ismail Jakobs on the flanks.

Jhon Cordoba, with his 13 goals this season, is a reliable finisher who is also a seminal piece in the counter because he makes himself available to his teammates.

As Bremen struggles to score despite being aggressive, it will expose itself to the Kölner counterattack.

Köln’s speed on the flanks helps it rank fourth in attempted crosses and fourth in attempted free kicks.

This is FC Köln’s second advantage: it loves to earn set piece attempts, which Bremen really struggles to defend.

Whereas Köln accrues one of the highest goal totals from set pieces, Bremen consistently ranks as one of the worst teams in defending set-pieces based on goals allowed.

Cordoba, who has scored three of his goals this season via the header, is dangerous in the air, as is teammate Sebastiaan Bornauw, who has four goals this season via the header.

The Verdict

Köln is getting a one-goal advantage against an offensively inept team that is susceptible to counter and set-piece opportunities, both of which Köln are relatively strong at converting.

Best Bet: Köln +1 (-118) with BetOnline







Freiburg vs Schalke 04


What Happened To Schalke?


In the beginning of David Wagner’s first year as Schalke trainer, Schalke played as Wagner hoped.

Turn the clock to June, Schalke is the second-worst team in the Rückrunde.

The Königsblauen have one win, tied with SC Paderborn for the fewest, and have scored only nine goals.

So what happened? Wagner is known for well-timed implementation of pressing particularly with a strong midfield.

Over the course of the season, teams adjusted.

Also, Schalke was incredibly unlucky as its strongest midfield players — Suat Serdar, Omar Mascarell, and Amine Harit suffered injuries.

These injuries produced a severely weakened midfield, with raw youngsters seeing more of the pitch, thus taking away Schalke’s strongest impetus.

League leaders in duels won, the Königsblauen still want to play physical football.

Schalke’s Lack of Offense

They simply lack the means to convert defensive gains into tangible offensive productivity, which is why they score so few goals.

As measured by key passes and passes into the final third, Schalke creates very little offensive danger.

This will surely remain the same against a Freiburg defense that allows relatively few scoring opportunities inside the box.

Freiburg Will Also Struggle To Score

Cognizant of his team’s reduced strength, Wagner has renewed tactical focus on defensive stability.

As you see, rival fans have made fun of Wagner’s emphasis on compact football:



On the one hand, Freiburg is not a team to be susceptible to Schalke’s pressing.

With a technically sound group of central defenders, plus the goalkeeper, Freiburg is comfortable playing out of the back and then initiating offense along the wings.

Freiburg’s problem is that it lacks the pieces to combine productively against a deep and compact defense.

This problem is repeatedly apparent particularly against the unspectacular teams that are defensive-oriented.

In both games against Augsburg, for example, Freiburg scored a goal a piece.

Whereas, under trainer Christian Streich, Freiburg loves the underdog role and loves to surprise higher-caliber teams like Leipzig and Dortmund, Schalke is the sort of opponent which it tends to offer a flat performance.

The Verdict

It’s true that, in the standings, both teams find themselves in no-man’s land.

But Streich has, in recent history, kept his team well-motivated in just this situation.

Wagner’s job is on the line and he’ll want a respectable performance after last week’s embarrassing loss to higher-powered Wolfsburg.

Wagner will continue his conservative approach, which he’s emphasized in the Rückrunde, even against offensively lackluster teams like Werder, and Freiburg will likewise struggle to decrypt Schalke’s defense.


Best Bet: Under 3 (-111) with BetOnline
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
does it matter these days?
Usually i think fans really don‘t make a difference. I‘ve been perusing some German empirical studies and the consensus seems to be that fans, if anything, have more of an influence on the refs. The comfort and familiarity of the home field and home stadium should have the biggest impact on the players.
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
finally some sports to talk about! I have no interest talking bout corona or all the political bs!! Since I have time w nothing else to cap trying to learn soccer!!
Have you started looking into Bundesliga? Never too early to start capping a matchday :)
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Have you started looking into Bundesliga? Never too early to start capping a matchday :)
well no. I’m learning so much on fly I been focusing on the next days matches so far. Maybe I’ll look during these games on now if they get boring. Does seem like the German league little more exciting isn’t it? Higher totals and seemed like more action when I watched little bit last Saturday. Do they only play on weekend?
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Any key stats you look at I should know about? I been asking everyone I know who caps soccer this question just trying to come up with good way to go about it! So far I been doing far more reading than number crunching.
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Usually i think fans really don‘t make a difference. I‘ve been perusing some German empirical studies and the consensus seems to be that fans, if anything, have more of an influence on the refs. The comfort and familiarity of the home field and home stadium should have the biggest impact on the players.
I think the refs are a big factor

Other thing I've seen mentioned, but no studies just anecdotal by players, is at the home ground you have more spatial awareness, so breaking offside traps, knowing how far a pass is needed etc.
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
I think the refs are a big factor

Other thing I've seen mentioned, but no studies just anecdotal by players, is at the home ground you have more spatial awareness, so breaking offside traps, knowing how far a pass is needed etc.
i forget what match it was but I was reading one these teams may benefit from no home fans cause they had been getting on the teams case adding more pressure. Lol. No clue if any validity to it or not? I’m a infant at this soccer thing! I do know the rules and Asian handicap thanks to loving the WC and other world/region events that feature national teams!!
 

VirginiaCavs

Man Crush on Kyle Guy
Any key stats you look at I should know about? I been asking everyone I know who caps soccer this question just trying to come up with good way to go about it! So far I been doing far more reading than number crunching.
I‘m a geek but i‘m still learning with soccer, to navigate the statistical world myself. For example I like the expected goals metric as it probably offers more of a more precise assessment than just looking at goals. Same thing with baseball and xBA. If I remember tho that you explicitly skeptical of all the advanced metrics type of stuff tho you look into them yourself, anyways!

But the stats are key for me at least are the ones that matter most for a match-up. That‘s been my approach. I know Werder stinks at defending set pieces for example so I look to bet on a team to beat it that excels in that area. Just that sorta common sense logic that follows from trying to understand a team‘s strengths and weaknesses
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Appreciate it buddy!!

I dunno if skeptical the right word when it comes to advanced metrics for baseball. I use them, quite a bit actually. I just don’t view them as the be all end all as some do. I believe there a art form to pitching to contact while many metrics like to call contact outs luck. There in lies the problem for me here with soccer, I know baseball so it easy for me to formulate opinions on how much weight I give certain metrics, that isnt the case with soccer so I either choose to believe or ignore. Lol.
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
i forget what match it was but I was reading one these teams may benefit from no home fans cause they had been getting on the teams case adding more pressure. Lol. No clue if any validity to it or not? I’m a infant at this soccer thing! I do know the rules and Asian handicap thanks to loving the WC and other world/region events that feature national teams!!
Oh for sure, for teams who are favored and at home and expecting to score, some have crowds that can start turning on them after like 20 minutes if nothing has been created and you can see them start forcing things rather than letting the game come to them
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Oh for sure, for teams who are favored and at home and expecting to score, some have crowds that can start turning on them after like 20 minutes if nothing has been created and you can see them start forcing things rather than letting the game come to them
within 20 minutes huh? Damn, they like Philly fans! Lol
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Oh for sure, for teams who are favored and at home and expecting to score, some have crowds that can start turning on them after like 20 minutes if nothing has been created and you can see them start forcing things rather than letting the game come to them
an unsupportive home crowd has to be like a 1% or less probability
 

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Maybe i underestimated, but EPL is a different world and i'm not so sure it's that much of an effect

But then again i've made a gambling career of backing road teams saying the crowd doesn't matter much
 

2daBank

VC's Valentine
Maybe i underestimated, but EPL is a different world and i'm not so sure it's that much of an effect

But then again i've made a gambling career of backing road teams saying the crowd doesn't matter much
I absolutely feel that way in some sports more than others, since I don’t know soccer I been asking guys who do. For instance nhl I’m big into backing road teams, especially in the playoffs as I think home ice is vastly overrated in the price. Mlb is another where I feel that way. Basketball I tend to put more stock into home crowd as the fans right on top of the court and that sport has a ton of runs fueled off emotion. Football I think oddsmakers do a very good job of factoring home field into the lines pretty accurately, especially these days compared to in the past where they lazily would just use the standard fg for everyone.
 
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