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Bowl plays and thoughts

In bowl games, Clawson, at BGSU and Wake, is 5-0 to the over by an average of 17.80 points, most recently pushing against TAMU last year while going over by 42.5.points (Wake 55 TAMU 52).
 
Wake fired its DC in the middle of the season, but even after that Clemson torched Wake for 471 rushing yards at 11.78 yards per carry with 5 TD runs of 52+ yards.

https://www.foxsports.com/college-f...ads-no-4-clemson-past-wake-forest-63-3-100618

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. (AP) — It didn’t matter who took the handoffs for No. 4 Clemson. All those long touchdown runs added up to a historic day that would make their late teammate proud.

Three Tigers rushed for at least 125 yards apiece, and the team rolled up 471 yards rushing in a 63-3 rout of Wake Forest on Saturday.

They considered it a fitting tribute to C.J. Fuller, the running back on Clemson’s national title team two years ago who died earlier in the week at age 22.

“That’s what coach (Dabo) Swinney was telling the team: ‘C.J., I promise, was up there proud of his guys running the ball today,” co-offensive coordinator Jeff Scott said. “Those guys wanted to honor him in the way that they play, and they did that today.”

It was the first time in school history that Clemson (6-0, 3-0 Atlantic Coast Conference) had three players with at least that many yards apiece, and the first time since 2006 that they three in triple figures. The team rushing total was the program’s best since 1981 [when they had 536 rushing yards in an 82-24 win over Wake] and the fourth-best in its history.

Travis Etienne rushed for 167 yards and three touchdowns, Lyn-J Dixon rushed for 163 yards and two scores, and Adam Choice had 128 yards and a TD. Etienne scored on runs of 59, 3 and 70 yards while Dixon had touchdown runs of 65 and 52 yards, and Choice had a 64-yard TD run.

“Offensively, man, I’m so pleased with our ability to run the football,” Swinney said. “That’s what every team dreams of being able to do.”

Trevor Lawrence was 20 of 25 for 175 yards with a 55-yard touchdown pass to Justyn Ross and a 20-yarder to Tee Higgins in about 2 1/2 quarters before leaving with the score out of hand. This was the freshman’s second start, and first on the road.
 
Clemson is second in the FBS with 40 runs of 20+ yards and is tied for 2nd with nine runs of 50+, five of which came against Wake. Anyone care to guess who's first in those two categories?

Yes, Memphis, and they did it without playing Wake. Yet.
 
I will be playing over in that one in at least one way, already on Memphis so naturally will be on the tt. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Tigers get to 55+
 
That was one of the first plays I thought about when looking over the numbers. Also, Syr and WV over.
 
Statistical/historical oddities from the database going back to 1980:

Before this year, only one team had played a bowl game off an ATS loss of 50+ points. That was Wisconsin in 2014, which came up 62.5 points short of the number in the 2014 B1G championship game. This year Duke matches that feat after losing 59-7 as -10.5 versus Wake. Wisconsin regrouped and covered in a 34-31 win as +6 versus Auburn in 2014.
 
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No team has ever played a bowl game coming off a win of 40+ as an underdog. This year Wake does it off a 52-point win and 62.5-point cover (see above).

Bowl teams off an upset win by 30+ are a boring 4-5 ATS.
 
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Minnesota snapped a 14-game losing streak versus rival Wisconsin. The Gophers won by 22 (as +10.5), their biggest margin of victory in the series since a 35-10 win in 1969. This is a series that is tied 60-60-8 and is the longest uniterrupted series in CFB. Evening up the tally after 14 straight losses seems like a BFD to me. Mission accomplished?

The last time they snapped a long (six-game) losing streak in the series (2001), they did it in the final game of the regular season and did not go to a bowl. Before that, the last time they snapped a long (six-game) losing streak in the series (1984, as +17.5), they did it in October and followed it up with a 31-28 home loss v. Northwestern as -10.

I see this as a letdown spot for the Gophers but would appreciate other thoughts.
 
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LSU and TAMU come into their bowl games off a 7-OT game. Until this year, no bowl team has played more three OT's in the game preceding its bowl game. The three bowl teams off a 3-OT game went 0-3 ATS (0-1 if off a loss, 0-2 if off a win) in their bowl games losing by an average of 13.7 points ATS.

Bowl teams off an OT loss are 11-18 ATS all-time, and just 5-13 ATS the last 10 seasons. This year's OT losers are SDSU, Boise, Virginia, and LSU.
 
I lean toward fading teams coming off overtime loss. The more overtimes the better. Agree with you on Minnesota.
 
Only four bowl teams have gone into their bowl with a losing streak of 4+. All four covered, but these were against teams with more wins that were disappointed to be there. Marshall is not disappointed -- they never are under Holliday (they cover bowls when they end the season on a win, or a loss, or two losses, or a CCG win, or a CCG loss) -- and I'm playing them -3.5 even. Also under 52 and USF team under 24.
 
Duke +3.5 (big)
ML +167

Tons of angles point this way, including Cut being 7-0 ATS in evenly matched bowls.
 
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Wisco +3 -115
Under 44 -102

The two major angles that supported the Duke play also support a Wisco play. I liekd the under from the start, and the QB changes make th eunder appealing despite the drop to 44.
 
Playoff facts/angles

teams that average more than 5.86 yards per rush are 7-0 ATS

team with better yards per rush is 11-3 ATS, but all three losers were teams facing Clemson
 
Simple formula for picking playoff games ATS:

If Clemson is playing, pick Clemson (5-1 ATS)
If not, play team with better yards per rush (8-0 ATS)
 
teams averaging more than 10 yards per pass are 2-3 ATS (including both sides of this year's Bama-OU semi)

other qualifiers were Oregon in both its games in 2014 and OU vs, UGA last year.
 
Play is based on an angle that was 4-1 last year and is 4-1 ATS this year, including three winners that covered by 30+ (Duke, Wisc, TAMU)
 
Sorry for past-posting:

I'm on Penn State -4,5 & -4

Failed fake punt is not a good start
 
A few historical notes:

Bama is the first playoff team to advance to the finals in an ATS loss.
Despite two SU wins, Bama is 0-3 ATS in the playoff final.
 
A few historical notes:

Bama is the first playoff team to advance to the finals in an ATS loss.
Despite two SU wins, Bama is 0-3 ATS in the playoff final.

We were 3-0 SU and ATS in BCS championship games. Maybe playoff actually works to get two best teams in a game. Or lines are inflated because of what happened 2009-12
 
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