Bet at 5dimes

Betting bad teams worst bet in sports again in 2018

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Once again in 2018, betting college teams with losing records straight up was proved to be the worst proposition in sports betting. This is the 28th year since I started keeping records and the outcome has never varied.

Teams with the best record SU are always the teams who finish at the top of the ATS standings. Teams with the worst record always are the worst ATS

There is always an outlier or two both ways but there is a direct correlation of good record SU with winning record ATS,

This year, 78% of teams with 8 SU wins or more finished in the black ATS.
Of the top 25 teams ATS this year, 22 had winning records SU while none had losing records (three .500).
Of the 20 teams that were at least +4 ATS on the season, 15 were 4 games or more above .500 SU, one 7-5, one 7-6, none below .500 (three at .500)

Same with the bad teams. Of teams with 4 or fewer wins, 77% lost ATS.
Of the bottom 25 ATS, 18 (72%) had losing records SU

To put it another way, if you bet winning teams there were 27 teams who were at least +3 ATS. Bet losing teams and there were zero at +3 ATS.

The correlation between winning SU and ATS continues right down the line. Of teams that won 10 games or more SU, 89% finished above .500 ATS.

Of teams that won one, two, or thee games SU, 20% were above 500 ATS.

There is usually one team among the losers SU who has a winning record ATS and usually two to three teams among the winners SU who have losing records ATS.

The only outlier among winning teams ATS was Rutgers, 1-11 SU, 7-5 ATS (second year in a row they have done that). More outliers than normal among teams winning SU and losing ATS (although overall historic percentages remained the same), including Wisconsin (7-5, 3-9), Washington, (10-3, 4-9) (first time Peterson has ever been below .500 ATS at Washington), Oklahoma (12-2, 6-7-1), and Ohio State (13-1, 6-8).

Ten best and worst ATS in 2018:
BEST ATS
(Record SU—ATS)
Washington St 12-0, 8-4
UCF 12-0, 9-3
FIU 8-4, 9-3
Utah State 10-2, 9-3
Ga Southern 9-3, 9-3 (bottom 10 in 2018)
Buffalo 10-3, 9-4
Fresno 11-2, 9-4
ULL 7-6, 9-4
UAB 10-3, 9-4
App State 10-2, 8-3-1

Worst ATS
(Record SU—ATS
N Mexico St 3-9, 2-10
Ole Miss 5-7, 3-9
UConn 1-11, 3-9
Wisconsin 7-5, 3-9
S Diego ST 7-5, 3-9
Washington 10-3, 4-9
Oregon State 2-10, 4-8 (repeat from 2017)
USC 5-7, 4-8
New Mexico 3-9, 4-8
UTSA 3-9, 4-8

Bottom line: There is not, and never has been, a casino game where you buck the odds you do when you bet bad college football teams.
 
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number2

Well-Known Member
Thanks for the info TahoeLegend.

Do you think blindly betting the top 10 in the rankings will bring out profits for next year?

I remembered trying to blindly bet the top 5 every week 2 years ago, but stopped as I lost my bankroll making 20-30 plays a week and not sticking to my plan.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
Never thought of that approach, number2, and was skeptical when I first read your post,, but a bettor who did it in 2018 would have won money.

A guy who bet Oklahoma, Ohio State, N Dame, Clemson, and Bama (62-5 SU) would have gone 34-32-1 ATS.

He would have done better with the second 10, LSU, Ga, Florida, Texas, Wash State. They went 52-15 SU, 39-28 ATS, but only because Florida and Wash State were both 5 games over 500 (some games against each other in both groups, but didn't factor them in because they cancel out).

So for the year, a guy who bet that top 10 every game would have finished 73-60. Better than a lot of bettors do in any year, but that's only for one year so don't know if it holds true over multiple seasons. I'll let someone else do the work to see if it applies in any other years.

Plus, some of those ATS losses could obviously be avoided by laying off games when they were looking ahead or had cupcake games, so It's clear that, at least in 2018 someone betting top 10 every week could have better numbers than the above.

I use the "Bad Team" stat after I do my standard handicapping and evaluation. I never bet on bad teams even if I like their situation that week for some reason. I keep in mind, no matter what my analysis tells me, I am betting into the worst odds in sports betting if I bet bad teams.

It seems logical historically bad teams like, say, UConn was in 2018, would eventually be getting so many points and other teams would be taking them so lightly they were bound to cover more than 2 times, but they didn't. Really bad teams never do.

I first started keeping this stat years ago when a grizzled old gambler told me, "never count on a bad team to do anything." I've followed that rule ever since.
 
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bull

Coattailing Cheerleader
Good place as any for me too post this question. If I’m intruding too much on you thread, mr Tahoe, just throw me out.
Can anyone tell me the SU record of underdogs played in the 45 in-conference games played in Big 12 ? Seems like there were lot of upsets. Then if I throw out Kansas and OU, do I have a winning strategy ?
Thanks for the attention and any responses.
 

TahoeLegend

Well-Known Member
I'll see if I can find the numbers anywhere, Bull.

I know I can just use Phil Steele and compile the information team by team, game by game, but I'll have my math guy see if there is an easier way to do it.
 

bull

Coattailing Cheerleader
I don’t want you to do a lot of work. I just thought somebody might already have this data.
 

pressitup

Well-Known Member
I don’t want you to do a lot of work. I just thought somebody might already have this data.
KillerSports.com



SU:15-0-0 (8.80, 100.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:15-0-0 (14.83, 100.0%) avg line: 6.0 +6: 15-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 13-2-0 (86.7%) +10: 15-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 9-3-3 (75.0%)
O/U:6-9-0 (0.47, 40.0%) avg total: 60.1+6: 5-10-0 (33.3%) -6: 10-5-0 (66.7%) +10: 5-10-0 (33.3%) -10: 10-5-0 (66.7%)
RushesRush YdsPassesPass YdsCompTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team42.6188.131.9262.620.91.06.59.49.39.534.7
Opp34.9137.335.6264.320.71.96.77.53.77.925.9
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUr ATSrOUrot
Sep 22, 2018 box Saturday 4 2018 TXT OKST away 7-10 17-7 10-0 7-0 41-17 12.0 76.5 24 36 -18.5 8.8 -27.2 W W U 0
Sep 22, 2018 box Saturday 4 2018 TEX TCU home 7-6 3-7 14-3 7-0 31-16 2.5 48.0 15 17.5 -1 8.2 -9.2 W W U 0
Oct 06, 2018 box Saturday 6 2018 TEX OKLA neutral 10-7 14-10 21-7 3-21 48-45 7.0 61.5 3 10 31.5 20.8 10.8 W W O 0
Oct 06, 2018 box Saturday 6 2018 IWST OKST away 9-7 21-14 10-7 8-14 48-42 9.0 56.0 6 15 34 24.5 9.5 W W O 0
Oct 11, 2018 box Thursday 7 2018 TXT TCU away 3-0 0-7 7-0 7-7 17-14 7.0 58.5 3 10 -27.5 -8.8 -18.8 W W U 0
Oct 13, 2018 box Saturday 7 2018 IWST WVA home 13-7 7-7 0-0 10-0 30-14 4.5 54.5 16 20.5 -10.5 5.0 -15.5 W W U 0
Oct 13, 2018 box Saturday 7 2018 KAST OKST home 0-3 3-3 14-0 14-6 31-12 6.0 60.5 19 25 -17.5 3.8 -21.2 W W U 0
Oct 27, 2018 box Saturday 9 2018 KAN TCU home 7-0 0-10 10-7 10-9 27-26 13.0 49.0 1 14 4 9.0 -5.0 W W O 0
Oct 27, 2018 box Saturday 9 2018 OKST TEX home 17-7 14-7 0-7 7-14 38-35 1.5 62.0 3 4.5 11 7.8 3.2 W W O 0
Nov 03, 2018 box Saturday 10 2018 BAY OKST home 0-7 14-3 7-14 14-7 35-31 6.0 68.0 4 10 -2 4.0 -6.0 W W U 0
Nov 03, 2018 box Saturday 10 2018 WVA TEX away 10-14 17-14 0-3 15-10 42-41 1.0 58.5 1 2 24.5 13.2 11.2 W W O 0
Nov 17, 2018 box Saturday 12 2018 KAST TXT home 0-6 10-0 5-0 6-0 21-6 6.0 55.0 15 21 -28 -3.5 -24.5 W W U 0
Nov 17, 2018 box Saturday 12 2018 OKST WVA home 7-14 7-17 10-0 21-10 45-41 5.5 74.0 4 9.5 12 10.8 1.2 W W O 0
Nov 24, 2018 box Saturday 13 2018 BAY TXT neutral 7-10 7-7 14-0 7-7 35-24 5.0 63.5 11 16 -4.5 5.8 -10.2 W W U 0
Nov 24, 2018 box Saturday 13 2018 TCU OKST home 0-3 7-0 17-7 7-14 31-24 4.5 55.5 7 11.5 -0.5 5.5 -6.0 W W U 0
 

jedi ninja

Sir Lawrence
KillerSports.com



SU:15-0-0 (8.80, 100.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:15-0-0 (14.83, 100.0%) avg line: 6.0+6: 15-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 13-2-0 (86.7%) +10: 15-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 9-3-3 (75.0%)
O/U:6-9-0 (0.47, 40.0%) avg total: 60.1+6: 5-10-0 (33.3%) -6: 10-5-0 (66.7%) +10: 5-10-0 (33.3%) -10: 10-5-0 (66.7%)
RushesRush YdsPassesPass YdsCompTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team42.6188.131.9262.620.91.06.59.49.39.534.7
Opp34.9137.335.6264.320.71.96.77.53.77.925.9
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Sep 22, 2018boxSaturday42018TXTOKSTaway7-1017-710-07-041-1712.076.52436-18.58.8-27.2WWU0
Sep 22, 2018boxSaturday42018TEXTCUhome7-63-714-37-031-162.548.01517.5-18.2-9.2WWU0
Oct 06, 2018boxSaturday62018TEXOKLAneutral10-714-1021-73-2148-457.061.531031.520.810.8WWO0
Oct 06, 2018boxSaturday62018IWSTOKSTaway9-721-1410-78-1448-429.056.06153424.59.5WWO0
Oct 11, 2018boxThursday72018TXTTCUaway3-00-77-07-717-147.058.5310-27.5-8.8-18.8WWU0
Oct 13, 2018boxSaturday72018IWSTWVAhome13-77-70-010-030-144.554.51620.5-10.55.0-15.5WWU0
Oct 13, 2018boxSaturday72018KASTOKSThome0-33-314-014-631-126.060.51925-17.53.8-21.2WWU0
Oct 27, 2018boxSaturday92018KANTCUhome7-00-1010-710-927-2613.049.011449.0-5.0WWO0
Oct 27, 2018boxSaturday92018OKSTTEXhome17-714-70-77-1438-351.562.034.5117.83.2WWO0
Nov 03, 2018boxSaturday102018BAYOKSThome0-714-37-1414-735-316.068.0410-24.0-6.0WWU0
Nov 03, 2018boxSaturday102018WVATEXaway10-1417-140-315-1042-411.058.51224.513.211.2WWO0
Nov 17, 2018boxSaturday122018KASTTXThome0-610-05-06-021-66.055.01521-28-3.5-24.5WWU0
Nov 17, 2018boxSaturday122018OKSTWVAhome7-147-1710-021-1045-415.574.049.51210.81.2WWO0
Nov 24, 2018boxSaturday132018BAYTXTneutral7-107-714-07-735-245.063.51116-4.55.8-10.2WWU0
Nov 24, 2018boxSaturday132018TCUOKSThome0-37-017-77-1431-244.555.5711.5-0.55.5-6.0WWU0
Doesn't seem like enough games here, or was there another parameter in the query?
 

bull

Coattailing Cheerleader
Many thanks for the input, mr. press.
There are 10 teams in conference so each plays 9 in-conference games.
That’s 90, divide by 2, I’m talking 45 games. How many of those 45 did the underdog win straight up .? Conference games only.
If the dog won 15, that leave 30 losers. What I would then do is eliminate OU and Kansas.That eliminates 17; of the 45 leaving 28 in my universe. And if the dog won 15 of those 28, playing the dog on all games would deliver a nice profit.
I think the Big 12 had a lot of teams beating one another but with the medical issue that put me in hospital month of October, I don’t know how frequently the dog was a winner SU.
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
Many thanks for the input, mr. press.
There are 10 teams in conference so each plays 9 in-conference games.
That’s 90, divide by 2, I’m talking 45 games. How many of those 45 did the underdog win straight up .? Conference games only.
If the dog won 15, that leave 30 losers. What I would then do is eliminate OU and Kansas.That eliminates 17; of the 45 leaving 28 in my universe. And if the dog won 15 of those 28, playing the dog on all games would deliver a nice profit.
I think the Big 12 had a lot of teams beating one another but with the medical issue that put me in hospital month of October, I don’t know how frequently the dog was a winner SU.
16 Big Xll upsets last year:

Baylor beat OK St as 6.5 pt dog.
Baylor beat Tex Tech as 5 pt dog.
Iowa State beat OK St as 9 pt dog.
Iowa State beat WVU as 6.5 pt dog.
Kansas beat TCU as 13.5 pt dog.
Kansas St beat OK St as 8 pt dog.
Kansas St beat Tex Tech as 6.5 pt dog.
Oklahoma St beat Texas as 3 pt dog.
Oklahoma St beat WVU as 6.5 pt dog.
TCU beat Ok St as 6 pt dog.
Texas beat TCU as 3 pt dog.
Texas beat Oklahoma as 7.5 pt dog.
Texas beat Texas Tech as 1.5 pt dog.
Texas Tech beat OK St as 14.5 pt dog.
Texas Tech beat TCU as 7 pt dog.
WVU beat Texas as 2 pt dog.
 

Teapot9

The Picasso of Caddies
16 Big Xll upsets last year:

Baylor beat OK St as 6.5 pt dog.
Baylor beat Tex Tech as 5 pt dog.
Iowa State beat OK St as 9 pt dog.
Iowa State beat WVU as 6.5 pt dog.
Kansas beat TCU as 13.5 pt dog.
Kansas St beat OK St as 8 pt dog.
Kansas St beat Tex Tech as 6.5 pt dog.
Oklahoma St beat Texas as 3 pt dog.
Oklahoma St beat WVU as 6.5 pt dog.
TCU beat Ok St as 6 pt dog.
Texas beat TCU as 3 pt dog.
Texas beat Oklahoma as 7.5 pt dog.
Texas beat Texas Tech as 1.5 pt dog.
Texas Tech beat OK St as 14.5 pt dog.
Texas Tech beat TCU as 7 pt dog.
WVU beat Texas as 2 pt dog.
KU always takes tcu to the woodshed for some reason
 

bull

Coattailing Cheerleader
:shake: Exactly what I was looking for. Many thanks. If historyrepeats thisyear , dog play will be profitable
 

s--k

Well-Known Member
I informally looked down at the ACC upsets that same night, didn't note them, but I believe it was about the same number 15-17 upsets, although the number of teams in the conference is 14 so the overall number of games is larger and the % of upsets smaller.
 

bull

Coattailing Cheerleader
mr. s k. I think this srategy works best only in the Big 12, where there are 10 teams and they all pay one another. Just my unresearched guess.
 

Sammy Meatballs

It's Not A Lie, If You Believe It...
Go to a strip bar?

Do you get dances from the hot strippers or the not so good strippers?

End of the day you are spending money might as well go with the better strippers


Same logic applies to betting
 

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