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berryhorse tracker

1-3 tonight .. meh

Mets offense did DeGrom zero favors
Giants got shelled from the jump
Doyers got mowed down by JV

Yay White Sox!
 
in the red now since at ctg, but a flat better still above water, fortunately for me I haven't tailed mets and likely wont :D
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first 2 games have lineups in with no play...some likely plays coming later

we will see if mr horse can comeback

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obviously not a trend guy as Nats are 12-4 in G2 of DH after losing 1st. 9-0 after all star break
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He just took CLE -282.....

No disrespect as he clearly having fine year but no chance I’d ever lay that with a team w no pressing need to win against a average team. Just no way do I believe they win this game more than 74% of the time.
 
3-1, +13.88 units

Fucked myself by not taking my own advice on playing all his plays or nothing. Next.
 
I actually did the same thing pretty extensively last season. Virginia Cavs fan, probably remembers me doing that.

I was coming up with a win probability and measuring it against the opening line, and even closing line.

My findings were, the less value a team had, the better they did. Books would lose way too much money to make it that simple.
 
Teheran OWNS the Mets. I mean it's not even funny how much he's dominated this team over the years. I don't care if he's slumping, there's virtually no reason to back this team. Went against him the other night and played the Braves when Folty pitched.

Teheran's splits at Citi:

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Obviously it goes without saying, but if you are following a system like this, you absolutely have to play every game religiously. You can’t pick and choose. Even when it’s the terrible Mets. The percentages will never work out in your favor if you jump in and out subjectively.
 
Obviously it goes without saying, but if you are following a system like this, you absolutely have to play every game religiously. You can’t pick and choose. Even when it’s the terrible Mets. The percentages will never work out in your favor if you jump in and out subjectively.

That may be true, but if I got a significant lean the other way..I'm either playing it or backing off to no play. That's just me and I don't blindly tail anyone. I have been playing some of his spots small, but there are certain teams I just wont play. He even says he never plays BAL or KC even when they come up on his system and he puts them out there
 
Even 100 loss teams win over 38% of their games, going to see some huge numbers on Orioles against Sox and Yanks, no chance I'm not playing them a bit.
 
and another thing 3-1 with one huge dog and another dog is cool but the emphasis is on 13.8806 units when in the real world he was up 3.39 units, im just saying people lose their mind when they see 14 units and whatever
 
and another thing 3-1 with one huge dog and another dog is cool but the emphasis is on 13.8806 units when in the real world he was up 3.39 units, im just saying people lose their mind when they see 14 units and whatever

Yup I’m just flat betting.
 
and another thing 3-1 with one huge dog and another dog is cool but the emphasis is on 13.8806 units when in the real world he was up 3.39 units, im just saying people lose their mind when they see 14 units and whatever

very misleading and screams tout, despite everything we are seeing says the opposite.
 
he picks winners and is consistent in his manner and shares so I appreciate him

it is kind of hard to not act hyped when you win or are rolling but

I feel same way

but it could still be me bumming that he aint black and just some smart cornball haha
 
when I tail I have been following his unit valuation..just assign a small unit of $5 for now.

$39.65 to win $93.18 Pending8/5/18 4:05pm MLB Baseball 923 Detroit Tigers +235

7.93 X $5 = $39.65 but I did get better odds

I passed on Mets..although they were up 2-0 last I seen
 
My only issue with his system so far is that it doesn't really seem to take any current situations into consideration. I have a feeling a lot of it is just projected numbers over the course of several past seasons with nothing really supporting the current state of each team or pitcher in the match up. Why would you lay -162 on Robbie Ray who is a complete disaster at home, the Mets who I don't even need to explain or the Tigers with that kind of line up. I will be honest and tailed his Estrada and the Jays play last night only because I was burned on the M's with Gonzales the night before and noticed their batters can't get out of their own way.
 
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