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B1G Discussion Thread: Week One

Will be the 2nd true freshman walk on to be named opening day starter in FBS history. The other was Baker Mayfield.

It's been neck and neck with him and a RS Freshman. This team is YOUNG. They are going to take their lumps this season for sure. Fleck is also going to maximize that new redshirt rule and most young guys will see some time before he puts the RS back on them.
 
Will be the 2nd true freshman walk on to be named opening day starter in FBS history. The other was Baker Mayfield.

It's been neck and neck with him and a RS Freshman. This team is YOUNG. They are going to take their lumps this season for sure. Fleck is also going to maximize that new redshirt rule and most young guys will see some time before he puts the RS back on them.
Is it at the point if they don't start winning 8-10 games next year and challenging Wisconsin that Fleck will be on the hotseat?
 
Is it at the point if they don't start winning 8-10 games next year and challenging Wisconsin that Fleck will be on the hotseat?
he won't be on the hot seat next year unless they lose every game. He's been very smart about setting low expectations and presenting this as a process that will take time to change the culture. I've not seen anything from him that he can actually win games with coaching yet. But he can recruit and the kids like playing for him so we'll see...
 
Doubit matters when they just run the ball down the others teams throats. Whats the point adjustment on Danny Davis missing those games?
 
So, as long as Shea stays healthy for 8 more days that is a winner.

I also added Michigan -1 -110.

TT play on that game will be determined next week. There is more clarity on a few injury situations I wanted to look at.
 
Glad Urban back. Hangs 100 on everybody. I love that guy. OSU has made me more money than any team in any sport since he's been there. Don't really care how he is outside of gameday. Guess I got a little buckeye in me.

Michigan has a great d but brutal schedule and suspect special teams. ND is no gimme. Michigan hasn't beat a ranked road team in over 10 years or some crazy shit. Got to give ND HFA and it being at night some credence. Patterson hasn't had a snap in a long time that's been meaningful. Toss up game, but will be on ND tt fh under more than likely. Not fucking with a full game at touchdown jesus. I do believe and think Michigan wins but will be very close and come down to a fg.

Wisconsin is Wisconsin...always solid but never great. Don't care for QB1 to win a game that he will have to at some point.

MSU will underachieve being the hunted.

PSU same as MSU

Intrigued by Nebraska as year goes on. Frost have that bitch humming and be a force by next fall. Tradition always comes around eventually....cyclical.

Fitzgerald is a pussy. If you can't announce your obviously healthy QB to start against a shit defense in Purdue you're gonna be running scared.

Like Purdue to make strides this year.

Everyone else sucks and I could care less about them,

Comes down to Michigan/OSU imo for a cfp spot.

My two cents for preseason.

GL everyone.
 
Well I guess this injury makes them even with ND in the department as Dexter Williams will miss the game due to suspension...not that he was proven as a feature back by any means anyways and with UM's size at DT and d-line wasn't going to do too much anyways...not that Black was really proven either but he was clearly the most polished of the young wide receiver set. Tough loss for both sides
 
Refresh my memory someone.
Didn't Minny have an experienced two year starter coming back at QB ?
Or am I thinking of a year ago ?

And if they have issues at QB, why are they favored by 18, and this was before NMSU got whipped pretty good Saturday night. ?

Also, what is the story about NW QB ? Is he in or out, and do they have good depth there. Thank you all my B1G friends.
 
I like Purdon't on Thursday.
ANd I know squat about the northern climes .
Just putting it out there.

Gl this season gents.
 
Unless everyone is lying or everyone but the medical staff is on board with him playing, he should be in the game. Fitz won't name the person until Thursday, at which time I will have to buy off NW, if I have time.
 
Refresh my memory someone.
Didn't Minny have an experienced two year starter coming back at QB ?
Or am I thinking of a year ago ?

And if they have issues at QB, why are they favored by 18, and this was before NMSU got whipped pretty good Saturday night. ?

Also, what is the story about NW QB ? Is he in or out, and do they have good depth there. Thank you all my B1G friends.
That was last year. Gophers will literally run all over this team but it won't be because of good QB play. I read today they are the youngest team in the country. They also run a very fast paced offense so young kids trying to think on the run isn't a good mix. Will be a lot of growing pains this year methinks.
 




And this is how we get from the end of last season into this season...

The chemistry on the team and the coaching staff was not great last year. The coaching staff was just sort of toxic. There was one guy that needed to go more than any and we finally got our wish this past spring when Tim Drevno was let go. He is/was awful. The players knew it, the rest of the coaches did I am sure. More than anything, this is the biggest difference for this team this year.

We are past the year 3 mark. The thing about Harbaugh is he came in and turned things around pretty quickly the first year and was one poorly reffed game away from going to Indy the 2nd year. Expectations obviously were high. And, you know what, they should be....

But, this program was a trainwreck when he entered off the Dave Brandon/RR/Hoke years. There was enough talent to amass an excellent 2016 team but the lack of solid recruiting on offense led to what we saw last year. What you need to remember is that Al Borges (old OC) would only look at a few QB's and then pick one quickly as his recruit. So, they literally had no depth at all and settled for a few QB's that were simply not up to par. There is a reason Rudock was brought in. There is a reason JOK was brought in. There was no depth and young guys were not ready. This all caught up to them last year with the horrid o-line and horrible QB play.

So, exit Drevno....and for the first time in the Harbaugh tenure UM goes 4 deep at QB. He finally, for the first time, has 'his' QB room. Remember this about Shea... his family is big UM people that are season ticket holders. He didn't get recruited here by Hoke etc. When Harbaugh got hired it was too late to flip him. This is basically a late reunion.

Lets go back to Jimmy. He is the medias favorite to get on out of any coach nationally. It is what it is... no biggie. Keep talking about him. Many coaches records in their first 3 years are less than stellar when building a program...

Dabo 25-14
Dantonio @MSU 22-16
Brian Kelly @ND 27-11
Jimbo 31-10
Saban 31-8
Richt 32-8
Harbaugh 28-11


There are several more but just doing this quick tonight. It isn't awful, it is merely 'okay'. Now, the pieces are together to start a nice 3-5 year solid run of 9-11 wins a year, imo.

But, as happy as any of us are about some changes this offseason... the headman looked in the mirror and decided on some changes himself. I think that will help this year. I for one would love to see the passion back. He seemed to lose it after the robbery in C-Bus in 2016. I do think some outside of football stuff was going on last year as well. He looks happier, in better shape and ready to 'roll the balls out on the field and see what happens'.


Lets talk about the team though...


I'll start with the concerns:

Special Teams scare the heck out of me. I literally think this may cost them a game or two at some point. The punting situation is up in the air. More on that when it is right to comment (if it is before the first game). DPJ scares the living shit out of me on punt returns. He has apparently worked real hard back there but we shall see. I am excited to see Ambry Thomas house a couple this year on kickoffs though. Iron Jock is back and we'll just see what happens. I think he rides on confidence so ride or collide young man.

Injuries are always a concern.

How will this team react in crunch time of close games? You need to 'learn' how to win.

Depth at RB. Yes, we have a workhorse in Higdon and a terrific all-around guy in Evans. After that it is a crapshoot. They really need to have a great season here and keep ahold of the two great commits they have for '19.


Things I like:

It is wait and see but they will hopefully use the full playbook for the first time in a few years.

Shea Patterson. Gamer. He is ready. I am totally not worried about him at all. This is a game-changer.

Strength and Conditioning. This was a huge, HUGE add to this staff. He has really transformed a lot of guys this off-season. Too many times last year the defense wore down in the 2nd half. This was two-fold. One, they had to carry the offense and two, they were not at peak physical condition.

Higdon and Evans. If they stay healthy I have revised my prediction for them... a combined a 2400 yards from LOS this season. I expect Chris to get 'good' touches out of the backfield.

TE Position. Zach Gentry is that next TE you will love to draft in NFL Fantasy Drafts....and he isn't the only one on the team...very deep here but he will have an outstanding season.

WR's. Yes, Tarik is hurt right now. That hurts. These guys will be better with experience, better QB play and a much better offensive system. A guy like DPJ was open a lot but could not get the ball. Perry and Martin will be very steady in the slot. The x-factor is Nico Collins. Now, Michigan sites are gushing about him and you can ask Hunt...their camp reports are subject to some scrutiny at times but he is big and can catch the ball. He is talented, they beat Bama and Georgia for this kid. He isn't chopped liver whatsoever.

Don Brown. If you cannot get excited about Don Brown then you have a problem. The CB's are back and they were the best duo in the country last year. They are so good that Ambry can't beat them out yet and he is a future star wherever he plays (perhaps both ways). Khlaleke Hudson is maybe the best guy we have and Rashan will have his breakout year before going top 5 next spring. Plus, lots of depth and Chase Winovich is back. I haven't even mentioned Devin Bush(watch the targeting bubba).

The defense gonna be nasty.

Overall, offense much better.... defense better as well. ST's are a concern and depth at RB scares me...

And, a much more cohesive coaching staff.

I'll address the o-line in another post tomorrow....
 
Schedule:

I am a traditionalist so I love playing marquee games early on. It makes it more fun... now... it will keep you out of the playoffs when you don't schedule like certain teams but if you are good enough go win any game in front of you...


Notre Dame will be tough but I think that Michigan defense will hold ND offense to 14-17 points TOPS. I think the offense will churn out enough for a comfortable win. We'll see of course, funny shit happens in that stadium.

WMU comes in for home opener. This is a nice little work on the kinks sort of game. '

SMU at home the week after. This should be interesting at times but Michigan coasts here...

I am glad we get Nebraska early. I will track them all year and fully expect some value on them in 2h of the season. Frost hates MICH and I don't think any love will be lost here. This should be fun to kick off conference season.

Off to NW next for what should be a good test against a savvy wildcat team. This is a good opportunity to win a 'tough' game on the road. I say that, in that it will not be easy and they UM should win but will have to play very well to do so. Winning on the road in the b10 is no easy task.

Maryland comes to town after that. They are slowly improving but this isn't a game that scares me too much.

A big one with Wisky coming to Michigan. This is the game where ST's could be the deciding factor. I think this is, as of now, a virtual toss-up.

Right after that it is off to East Landfill for what surely will be a night game. This is Sparty's Super Bowl and it is time Michigan respected that and played to that order. I honestly expect a classic game here. MSU will have a few tricks up their sleeve and their sleeves here... we'll see how MICH responds. No prediction yet.

BYE WEEK

Penn state comes in next. The Lions finally beat UM last year after a couple of spankings. I expect a night game here as well and I expect a UM victory. The Lions take a small step back this year imo. As of now, I think coming out of the bye that Mich gets the job done here at home.

The annual Rutgers game is next and thank goodness after facing Wisky/MSU/BYE/PSU in the previous 4 weeks. A much needed 2nd bye week here.

IU is a home game this year, thank goodness. I hate playing them in Bloomington. I am sure in a look-ahead spot this will be tough for awhile...

Then...The Game.


Overall...a tough schedule, obviously. If you tell me two losses all year and I can pick...I pick ND and Wisky...hehe...

At this point, this is a 9-10 win schedule hopefully and with the right magic perhaps 11. It isn't easy though.

It will be a blast though!
 
I've been busy (shocker) lately so sorry for the half-ass analysis.

If you have any specific questions, ask and I will answer to the best of my ability.

I'll let Hunt handle how the offense will, or hopefully operates. He is kinda passionate about it ;).
 
I hate the due factor so I think Sparty wins but i‘m sure it can‘t possibly come down to a gifted fumble again
 
So Cavs, I haven't seen your Michigan State Preview (or did I forget)...

Your thoughts?

Can they rebound from 13-12 the past two seasons? Is Lewerke ready to take the next step? A few positions are short on depth...thoughts? Will having Reshke back on the team cause locker room issues? Can LJ Scott hold onto the ball and finally fulfill ALL of his potential?
 
It got assigned to somebody else :(

2016 was a transition year at quarterback after Cook departed. Obviously disappointing year, the big play was missing in games and it showed how much a good quarterback meant to Dantonio. Enter Brian Lewerke. First year as starter with new, young receiving crew, a poor line whose numbers were honestly helped by his mobility, and he impressed. Yes, inconsistent. Missed a lot of open guys down field. But he has the intangibles--strong arm, ability to make throws on the run and to run (he needs to SLIDE though or he's bound to get hurt)

I did a little scouting report on him last year by re-looking at some footage:

Brian Lewerke
6'3
212 Pounds

Footage watched: First Half of Notre Dame (9/23). Northwestern (10/28). All offensive plays (could therefore not watch more games, since I had to fast-forward to every offensive drive. Tried to get some situational diversity: a bad defeat vs ranked opponent at home and a road game vs unranked opponent a month later.

Vs Notre Dame

Strengths: delivering quick intermediate pass from the pocket. Great at curl underneath, slant down the middle So confident in these underneath routes in middle of the field, really nails these. Mechanically following through on front foot.
QB sneak for huge gain: ability to recognize gap or running lane in defense and accelerate. Not afraid to take off and run and be elusive doing so with his quick feet.
Short memory (composure after getting picked in leading touchdown drive, made Felton Davis come back for underthrown fade in end zone)
Ball skills (disguised pass/run)
Stepping up in pocket when facing pressure

Weaknesses: allows eyes to be read by statically locking onto receiver and waiting for play to develop. And picked off, easy to see in advance where he's going with the pass.
Inconsistent accuracy on shorter routes towards the sideline (as opposed to middle of the field): Overshoots screen, underthrows fade in end-zone. Underthrows while on the run. Underthrows down the field. Has hard time leading receiver, or not leading him too far, but especially the first. Big opportunities missed, in addition to his two mistakes (fumble and interception). Overthrows easy out route towards sideline. So much for composure, now down 21-7?
Looks too quickly to scramble when faced with pressure. Too reliant on athleticism, especially when rattled, needs to be truer to his strength in the pocket. Careless with ball when running. If he doesn't force a pass down the field, where his accuracy really struggles.
Departs from mechanical expectations when nervous, struggling and facing deficit. Needs to be babied into a rhythm to redevelop confidence as opposed to wanting to guide passes in there.

Can he carry offense when rush attack is non-existent?

Vs Northwestern

Strengths: Ball skills (play-action on the move to both sides of the field, makes throwing across his body look easy, enabled by lack of pressure allowing him to step into throw; fools the defense with the play-action)
Utilizing straightaway breakaway speed of receiver down the field. Lewerke looks a lot better throwing down the field to White than he did vs a bigger guy like Davis...both his deep completions went to him somehow. It's something he needs to become way more consistent at, with routes that are harder to have good timing with like post routes.
Composure under pressure to deliver accurate in pass in end zone to receiver (granted he was wide open)
Extending plays with legs, ability to keep eyes down field while moving around, looking for a place to step into throw and thus deliver accurate pass
Zip on shorter throw
Vision for open running lanes and acceleration
Improved decision-making. Due to maturation or due to not losing composure by falling down so early and facing pressure so often as he did vs Notre Dame? Benefits from conservative playcalling, easily locates open receiver in the flat.
Patience on designed running plays in allowing blockers to set up
Pocket passing. Hitting those sideline throws that he wasn't able to against Notre Dame. Though NW is giving him so much more time to step into throws and deliver comfortably. His strength is still those intermediate curls, slants underneath in the middle of the field and leading receiver on out route to the flat. Still a nice display of arm strength to repeatedly wiz an accurate out route to receiver on the opposite side of the field. I like the confidence that he has in his arm, even if it hurts him with tighter windows.
Clutch and composed: final drive. Taking what defense gives him.


Weaknesses: Struggles to consistently utilize height of Davis, problematic difficulty in the red zone. Still prone to interception by locking into receiver, but not happening as frequently as vs Notre Dame. Still overthrowing receivers down field--missed two wide open ones, that could have each gone for touchdowns, instead no points on the drive. Amazing confident at fitting balls into super tight windows, not fazed by near-interceptions to try it again. Three near interceptions due to this--all dropped by Defensive back. Defensive backs with more ball skills and better hands than those of NW will surely make him pay with 1-2 interceptions. Leaving pocket instead of stepping up to make throw--confidence in ability to extend play with his legs and makes this happen with his arm. This worked in the 4th quarter for NW but I feel like that was a bit fluke-ish. Finally leaves up a solid jump ball for his receiver to go and get it, White then Davis at the end of the game, but really inconsistent at utilizing the height of his receivers.

Benefits from time in pocket to step into throw. Pass protection seminal to his proclivity as a pocket passer. Trying so hard to execute the deep pass, but Lewerke just isn't up for it, except for that one time in the beginning of the game with speedy White running straight ahead. The deep posts even when open, the jump balls to Davis, nothing else is working deep down the field. Key to stopping Lewerke is to play the intermediate routes and make him beat you deep.

Like to see tempo for Lewerke, get him into a rhythm, get him completing a lot of quick, easy passes, the passes out in the flat or underneath in the middle that he excels at. No running, no deep balls. Just rhythm maintained by a young but composed quarterback. Nice final drive.

Summary

Young quarterback who stays composed in clutch situations or after throwing an interception in the prior drive. But can also get rattled when things aren't going his way, shows visible frustration when missing an open receiver. I like to see him in tempo when he isn't overthinking, but just taking what the defense gives him. He's great at curls and slants in the middle of the field, short-intermediate range, and outs at the same range. He has the arm strength to hit an out from the other hashmark to the other side of the field. But he's so poor at throwing deep. That limits him as a passer except that he is so mobile and is able to extend plays with his legs. He's also a talented runner with vision and the patience to allow blockers to set up, with nice acceleration. He's maybe too confident in his mobility. Despite his ability in the pocket, he too often leaves the pocket prematurely. Despite his accuracy, he can be too confident in it, and throws it into windows that are too tight. His interception number is probably deflated. On the flip side, he often relies on his receivers to make diving catches and his completion % benefits from that. He misses opportunities to utilize his receivers' physical talents more effectively, especially the height of Davis. And of course the deep balls. Overall a cocky but maturing dual-threat quarterback with a lot of upside, when he can improve on 1) deep throws 2) staying in the pocket 3) decision making when faced with strong coverage and build on his 1) arm strength and accuracy from the pocket in short and intermediate throws, 2) his talent as a runner and 3) his more than periodic composure, ability to stay clutch as long as he doesn't overthink what he's doing and takes what the defense gives him.
 
Totally optimistic about Lewerke. Second year as starter, got the physical intangibles, returning receiving crew that could often help him out when he was unfortunately inaccurate, thinking of Davis readjusting in the Bowl Game on an underthrown deep ball.

LJ Scott was great in the Bowl game and I think that says a lot. I love his patience in waiting for holes to develop and being smart and explosive in attacking an opening. That's him at his best. He's gotten a lot of flack from his teammates for the fumble issue, they've worked on it in practice in ways that surely made him embarrassed and pissed off about it. It's not like he has some muscular deficiency or anything. I'm more worried about the o-line. Returns 4 of 5 starters but so what. Got manhandled too easily. But another year of strength and conditioning and of chemistry together should go a long way.

Defensive line returns three of four. Awesome run defense. Really big improvement from 2016 and Kenny Willekes a walk-on came from nowhere and played a big part in that. I went "under" in Sparty last year btw and two reasons were not foreseeing Lewerke and Willekes to be as good as they were. Question mark is the other end position. Looks like Jacub Panasiuk (brother of the DE) will start and get a chance to build off his freshman season. Some youth and inexperience will be there and pass rush will still be an issue. Linebacker led by Joe Bachie, now he's an upperclassman, but he's already distinguished himself as a tackling machine who can lead the defense vocally, mentally, etc.. Two issues: pass coverage (see game vs Northwestern, dink and dunk was easy against that defense) and replacing team captain at outside linebacker. Optimistic about that replacement though not that there's a lot to replace numbers-wise (while Bachie will thrive as captain), Antjuan Simmons was a four-star recruit who got some playing time who decomitted from the Suck-Eyes to come to East Lansing. Tyriq Thompson who chose Sparty over UM. Brandon Randle is a versatile "dual-threat" at end and linebacker position
 
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