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August Bases

adds
hate fading the yanks but I do believe this is the right spot
flipped on earlier under plays and went over on pit and laa..I played 2u over to wipe the ealier play and still give me a unit on the over
  • 959 Los Angeles Dodgers +113
  • 965 Cleveland Indians +134
  • 968 Toronto Blue Jays -141
  • 958 Cincinnati Reds 1st 5 Innings -150
  • 955 Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9 -115
  • 971 Detroit Tigers/Tampa Bay Rays Over 7½ -110
  • 977 Chicago White Sox/Los Angeles Angels Over 8½ -105
Still want to do something with HOU, but kinda leery...need more thinking on that one
 
Poor night for model but still solid numbers on the year

1565986720374.png

Breakdown how model fared based on value percentages

1565986802718.png

Best was value picks over 5% and the ones from zero to -5% value. The only losing range was in=between them two from zero to 5%. That seems pretty odd to me, but cant argue 13% ROI on value plays on the year, and 2.9% ROI when playing every game
 
Sharp report...

BAL at BOS - 7:10 p.m. ET | Aaron Brooks (2-6, 6.35 ERA) vs. Rick Porcello (10-9, 5.67 ERA)

Similar to Brewers-Nationals, tonight’s Orioles-Red Sox total screams sharp action.

Bettors (78%) are hammering this over, while the money (65%) is favoring the under.

And just like the game above, SI’s Bet Signals have lit up the under, helping confirm that big wagers from professional bettors are responsible for this move from 12 to 11.5.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 12 to 11.5)

SF at AZ - 9:40 p.m. ET | Jeff Samardzija (9-9, 3.55 ERA) vs. Mike Leake (9-9, 4.58 ERA)

While wiseguys are keying in on totals in our first two games, smart money is instead flowing on the moneyline in this matchup.

Arizona opened as a -119 favorite over San Francisco, and betting is pretty split with 51% of tickets on the D-backs.

However, this line has shot to a consensus of -135 thanks to an influx of professional action.

According to SI’s Bet Signals, sharps steamed Arizona at -126, providing insight as to why this number has moved since opening.

Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (-119 to -135)

MIL at WAS - 7:05 p.m. ET | Adrian Houser (5-5, 4.00 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (9-5, 3.41 ERA)

Sometimes unearthing sharp betting action takes time and effort, but other times it smacks your right in the face.

This is one of those games.

The Brewers-Nationals total opened at 9.5 and bettors are overwhelmingly jumping on the over.

Seventy-three percent of tickets are playing the over, yet 55% of real money wagered is on the under.

This tells me that the bigger bets are predicting a lower-scoring game. But big bets don’t necessarily mean they’re from pros, right?

Sharps steamed the under twice since this number opened, providing context as to why the total has dropped to 9 across the market.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9.5 to 9)
 
Sharp report...

BAL at BOS - 7:10 p.m. ET | Aaron Brooks (2-6, 6.35 ERA) vs. Rick Porcello (10-9, 5.67 ERA)

Similar to Brewers-Nationals, tonight’s Orioles-Red Sox total screams sharp action.

Bettors (78%) are hammering this over, while the money (65%) is favoring the under.

And just like the game above, SI’s Bet Signals have lit up the under, helping confirm that big wagers from professional bettors are responsible for this move from 12 to 11.5.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 12 to 11.5)

SF at AZ - 9:40 p.m. ET | Jeff Samardzija (9-9, 3.55 ERA) vs. Mike Leake (9-9, 4.58 ERA)

While wiseguys are keying in on totals in our first two games, smart money is instead flowing on the moneyline in this matchup.

Arizona opened as a -119 favorite over San Francisco, and betting is pretty split with 51% of tickets on the D-backs.

However, this line has shot to a consensus of -135 thanks to an influx of professional action.

According to SI’s Bet Signals, sharps steamed Arizona at -126, providing insight as to why this number has moved since opening.

Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (-119 to -135)

MIL at WAS - 7:05 p.m. ET | Adrian Houser (5-5, 4.00 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (9-5, 3.41 ERA)

Sometimes unearthing sharp betting action takes time and effort, but other times it smacks your right in the face.

This is one of those games.

The Brewers-Nationals total opened at 9.5 and bettors are overwhelmingly jumping on the over.

Seventy-three percent of tickets are playing the over, yet 55% of real money wagered is on the under.

This tells me that the bigger bets are predicting a lower-scoring game. But big bets don’t necessarily mean they’re from pros, right?

Sharps steamed the under twice since this number opened, providing context as to why the total has dropped to 9 across the market.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9.5 to 9)
Trying to follow this, basically saying we want to bet WITH the sharp angle?
 
Trying to follow this, basically saying we want to bet WITH the sharp angle?

Generally that's what people think. I don't always follow the money/sharp side but theory is pro bettors making huge wagers may have better info than most.
 
YTD [999-892 -1.35u] (14-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [8-14 -7.74u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

Well, this was fun: 25-38 -18.58u last 3 days :hang:
The roller coaster is near season low.
1566038420438.png

Only 2 weeks to rebound as I wont be playing baseball in Sept(at least very sparingly)
  • 901 Chicago Cubs -1½ +110
  • 901 Chicago Cubs -142
  • 904 Cincinnati Reds +105
  • 903 St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds Under 9 +100
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers -146
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers/Atlanta Braves Under 10 -105
  • 914 Colorado Rockies -1½ -135
  • 914 Colorado Rockies -246
  • 915 Cleveland Indians/New York Yankees Over 10½ +100
  • 916 New York Yankees -1½ +120
  • 916 New York Yankees -155
  • 922 Tampa Bay Rays -290
  • 924 Boston Red Sox -1½ -170
  • 925 Minnesota Twins -1½ -110
  • 925 Minnesota Twins/Texas Rangers Over 11½ +100
  • 929 New York Mets -203
RANDOMS
1566040222508.png
1566038910301.png
 
Here's one I like although I haven't played PHI yet because I had several indicators on the Pads
:hide:
Fade teams avg over 1.45 HR per game vs teams avg less than 1.4 HR per game in tightly lines games(less than 30 from even) after the break. Has returned 11.4% ROI on ML and 17.9% on RL over last 7 years. (215 game sample)
1566042985790.png
 
YTD [1014-896 +6.98u] (14-8 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [15-4 +8.33u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 952 Philadelphia Phillies -110
  • 952 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +175
  • 955 Los Angeles Dodgers +100 (2u)
  • 958 Washington Nationals +1½ -160
  • 959 Miami Marlins/Colorado Rockies Over 13½ -110
  • 961 San Francisco Giants/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9½ -117
  • 962 Arizona Diamondbacks -104 (2u)
  • 967 Cleveland Indians -1½ +120
  • 969 Seattle Mariners/Toronto Blue Jays Over 10 -110
  • 970 Toronto Blue Jays -150
  • 972 Tampa Bay Rays -170
  • 973 Minnesota Twins +125
  • 977 Houston Astros -170
  • 979 New York Mets -182
randoms
1566132842406.png
1566132878161.png

 
Quintana has a ERA over 8 with the ump. Was thinking of backing him but that vanished. Interest in over here?
 
Quintana has a ERA over 8 with the ump. Was thinking of backing him but that vanished. Interest in over here?
I have been thinking cubs all day as well, but have switched to the over. Favorites have dominated today. A dog may be due
 
YTD [1024-902 53.2% +8.46u] (15-9 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [10-6 +1.48u] (1-1 on 2u plays)

  • 901 Washington Nationals -121
  • 901 Washington Nationals/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 10 +100
  • 904 Cincinnati Reds -162
  • 906 St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +150
  • 906 St. Louis Cardinals -123
  • 909 Kansas City Royals/Baltimore Orioles Over 10 -108
  • 910 Baltimore Orioles -126
  • 912 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +105
  • 912 Tampa Bay Rays -181
  • 916 Minnesota Twins -198
random
  • SL 14-3 @ home in AUG since last year..12-5 RL +70% ROI1566213519029.png

  • PIT 11-1-1 over total on Mondays this year plus fade material SU & RL1566212680720.png

1566209621960.png
1566209665536.png



 
Model had good night, TEX has value tonight. When I seen that opened at Tex +114 I was like wtf, with Peters? lol

1566250690613.png
 
Favs of 140 or more on Maonday when total less than 10..last 7 years after break

season > 2012 and (line <= -140) and total < 10 and month < 9 and day = Monday and AASB
SU:132-61 (1.87, 68.4%) avg line: -180.2 / 165.0 on / against: +$2,747 / -$3,557 ROI: +7.9% / -18.4%
RL:99-94 (0.37, 51.3%) avg line: 112.9 / -127.5 on / against: +$1,775 / -$3,053 ROI: +8.7% / -12.1%
OU:87-98-8 (0.40, 47.0%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$2,017 / +$321 ROI: -9.5% / +1.5%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team5.213.586.769.322.141.312.701.324.8914.827.270.832.183.87
Opp3.352.669.017.731.590.982.010.792.2013.746.510.843.303.92
DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Aug 19, 2019boxMonhomeAstrosWade Miley - LTigersEdwin Jackson - R-4009.5
Aug 19, 2019boxMonhomeRaysBrendan McKay - LMarinersMarco Gonzales - L-1788.5
Aug 19, 2019boxMonhomeRedsTrevor Bauer - RPadresEric Lauer - L-1559.0
Aug 19, 2019boxMonhomeTwinsKyle Gibson - RWhite SoxIvan Nova - R-2009.5
Aug 05, 2019boxMonhomeDodgersTony Gonsolin - RCardinalsMichael Wacha - R8-08W-1.0U12-20-08-0-1659.09
Aug 05, 2019boxMonhomeIndiansAaron Civale - RRangersMike Minor - L0-1-1L-8.5U8-50-00-1-1559.59
Aug 05, 2019boxMonhomeMetsJacob deGrom - RMarlinsRobert Dugger - R6-24W0.0P6-60-15-0-3608.09
 
BAL has been favored 26 times in their last 286 games!

They are favored tonight and I actually played them, against better judgement. Means should handcuff the royos

1566251486639.png
 
Last edited:
Wow, Pujols just hit 652 HR

I can remember drafting him in fantasy baseball when he first came in the league cause he had 3 HR in the 2 days before the draft
:biglaugh:
 
YTD [1030-908 +8.24u] (15-9 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [6-6 -0.22u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 951 Washington Nationals -152
  • 951 Washington Nationals/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8½ -115
  • 955 Miami Marlins/Atlanta Braves Over 9½ -105
  • 956 Atlanta Braves -287
  • 958 St. Louis Cardinals +104
  • 957 Milwaukee Brewers/St. Louis Cardinals Under 9½ +100
  • 960 Chicago Cubs -191
  • 961 Colorado Rockies/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9½ -110
  • 962 Arizona Diamondbacks -145
  • 963 Kansas City Royals +107
  • 963 Kansas City Royals/Baltimore Orioles Under 9½ -103
  • 970 Minnesota Twins -1½ -110
  • 970 Minnesota Twins -208
  • 972 Houston Astros -287
  • 973 New York Yankees -1½ +120
  • 973 New York Yankees -130
  • 975 Philadelphia Phillies -110
  • 975 Philadelphia Phillies/Boston Red Sox Over 11 +100
  • 977 Cleveland Indians -1½ +110
  • 977 Cleveland Indians -154
  • 977 Cleveland Indians/New York Mets Over 8 -115
  • 980 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -145
  • 980 Los Angeles Dodgers -293
  • 982 Texas Rangers +125
rando
1566295939261.png

1566295268246.png

The 60's was a great era!

1566298884429.png 1566299055774.png

yvocjlvb1sc01.jpg
 
Another win for totals and 2 plays today...Braves and fish so close I may hit it too
still 3 games without lines

1566299423658.png
 
Here's a query I constantly run but it very rarely gives a play

A team that lost as a fav over 150 in last game and has a days rest to stew on it before starting another series as a dog. Fade this team...7-0 this year, 12-1 last year and 44% ROI over 7 years(57% on RL)

The play is LAD

:danceparty:



Screenshot_2019-08-20 KillerSports com.png
 
Here's the model...not sure if I'll be around later to post or update

Value TEX, KC, TOR

1566310022851.png
 
Last edited:
The Dodgers should win tonight. History suggests they should do so easily. Facing the lowly Jays behind Kershaw, LA is listed as a -320 favorite.

All right, so where does this total come into play? Well, if we’re confident in the Dodgers winning, we should also be confident in the bottom of the ninth not being played (since LA is at home). In other words, this game should have only 17 offensive chances as opposed to 18.

Since 2005, the under is 85-72-4 in games in which the total doesn’t rise (to try to rule out sharp overs) featuring a -300 or higher home favorite. As we filter by lower totals, that record improves pretty dramatically.

With totals under 9, for example, the under is 61-42-1, winning 17.0 units for a 16.3% ROI (the exact opposite strategy also generates a profit for overs).

While I don’t necessarily think the edge is as big as the record suggests, I do think it’s bigger than what the market accounts for, which is all it takes for this to be a smart bet.

Play: Under 8.5 +100

In Kershaw’s last start, he went 7 scoreless while striking out 10 batters. He is 8-0 in 12 starts at home this season (2.26 ERA).

The Dodgers are huge -320 favorites with Kershaw on the bump. LA has dominated at home this season with an NL-leading 48-16 record.

In games that Kershaw has pitched when the Dodgers are -300 or greater, the team is 18-4, winning by 2.82 runs per game.

The data suggests that the Dodgers historically win big in this spot. LA is -1.5 (-155) on the runline. With a dominant pitcher and a high-scoring offense (fourth in runs) that can smash (218 home runs), I like the Dodgers to win by at least two runs tonight.

Play: Dodgers -1.5 -155

You can see from this pics when @home and laying 280 or more LA is 25-4 last 4 years and returning a solid 12% ROI on both ML and RL over the last 10 years!

1566342529873.png
 
adds for pitcher changes
  • 980 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -160
  • 980 Los Angeles Dodgers -325
  • 979 Toronto Blue Jays/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 9 -115
 
YTD [1044-920 +6.38u] (15-9 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [14-12-3 -1.86u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 904 Arizona Diamondbacks -101
  • 905 Washington Nationals -140
  • 908 Atlanta Braves -175
  • 910 St. Louis Cardinals -108
  • 914 Minnesota Twins -165
  • 916 Tampa Bay Rays -280
  • 917 Los Angeles Angels +113
  • 919 Kansas City Royals -108
  • 924 Oakland Athletics -112
  • 926 Boston Red Sox -155
  • 928 New York Mets -145
  • 910 St. Louis Cardinals -1½ +175
  • 909 Milwaukee Brewers/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ +100
  • 913 Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins Over 9 +102
  • 914 Minnesota Twins -1½ +105
  • 917 Los Angeles Angels/Texas Rangers Over 10½ -105
  • 919 Kansas City Royals/Baltimore Orioles Over 10½ -110
randoms..
1566385712050.png
1566384866760.png

image
 
Strongly considering switch off the bravos

Teheran has not looked good going back to a loss vs KC because of 2 unearned runs. since then he has loss 3 straight at home and was really roughed up by the mets last time out.

Hard to imagine a team doing much worse in a let down situation after winning game 1 of home series going into game 2. Losing 4 of last 5 and 16 of 25 since last year as avg 133 favorite. Crazy 37% ROI fading them in this spot.

team = Braves and SG = 2 and H and p:W and season >= 2018
SU:9-16 (-0.88, 36.0%) avg line: -133.1 / 121.7 on / against: -$1,114 / +$989 ROI: -33.2% / +37.2%
RL:7-17 (-1.75, 29.2%) avg line: 117.0 / -137.8 on / against: -$1,045 / +$925 ROI: -37.8% / +26.0%
OU:9-13-2 (-0.19, 40.9%) avg total: 8.9 over / under: -$482 / +$317 ROI: -18.6% / +11.8%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team3.963.007.768.441.401.282.280.883.2413.846.840.842.684.48
Opp4.844.249.529.122.040.922.921.363.4816.247.441.202.684.56
DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
Aug 21, 2019boxWedhomeBravesJulio Teheran - RMarlinsCaleb Smith - L-1909.0
Aug 14, 2019boxWedhomeBravesDallas Keuchel - LMetsSteven Matz - L6-42W0.0P8-121-04-1-14510.09
Aug 02, 2019boxFrihomeBravesKevin Gausman - RRedsAlex Wood - L2-5-3L-2.5U4-100-00-5-1679.59
 
adding
  • 907 Miami Marlins +170
  • 921 Detroit Tigers +450
  • 929 Toronto Blue Jays +320
Just could not resist these at these prices...may be biggest baseball dog I every played at +450

1566427878391.png
 
On the road today, but taking a couple favs
  • 956 Atlanta Braves -275
  • 959 Tampa Bay Rays -205
  • 970 Los Angeles Dodgers -230
 
YTD [1053-932 +4.08u] (15-9 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [3-2 -0.7u] (0-0 on 2u plays)
Wednesday [6-10-3 -1.6]
(Det +450 may be biggest bases dog I ever hit or even played)
  • 901 Washington Nationals +118
  • 903 Cincinnati Reds -102
  • 903 Cincinnati Reds/Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9 -110
  • 907 Atlanta Braves +169
  • 910 Milwaukee Brewers -1½ +130
  • 910 Milwaukee Brewers -141
  • 915 Kansas City Royals +167
  • 920 Chicago White Sox +135
  • 923 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +135
  • 923 Toronto Blue Jays -110
  • 925 New York Yankees +135
  • 925 New York Yankees/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 8½ +105
  • 928 San Diego Padres +103
  • 927 Boston Red Sox/San Diego Padres Under 8 +100
randoms
  • NYY 41-18-1 over the total this year on the road +32.6% ROI KillerSports.com
  • SL 33-14 SU & 30-17 RL in August games since last year (10-3 in last 2 weeks) 1566561290420.png
  • CHW 22-12 SU at home at night this year1566561238055.png
  • CIN 28-52-2 on the total in road games at night since last year. Under for 23.5% ROI1566561429371.png
 
Didn't get a chance to run totals experiment yesterday and it was 1-3 Wednesday, but still 60% 32 days in
LAD & CHW overs indicate for today so far

1566565022542.png
 
adds
  • 905 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ -115
  • 913 Tampa Bay Rays -200
  • 913 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -130
  • 918 Minnesota Twins -1½ -150
 
Thornton is 0-8 next game after pitching 6 or more innings

starter = Trent Thornton and s:SIP >= 6 and season >= 2018
SU:0-8 (-2.38, 0.0%) avg line: 161.1 / -181.7 on / against: -$860 / +$850 ROI: -100.0% / +53.5%
RL:3-5 (-1.25, 37.5%) avg line: -100.0 / -120.0 on / against: -$285 / +$190 ROI: -30.6% / +19.1%
OU:6-2-0 (2.12, 75.0%) avg total: 9.2 over / under: +$385 / -$447 ROI: +43.4% / -51.3%
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team4.502.7510.628.881.501.622.501.382.0012.506.501.004.005.12
Opp6.884.6210.0012.502.252.003.251.754.6218.259.880.383.005.38
DateLinkDaySiteTeamStarterOppStarterFinalSUmW/LOUmO/UHitsErrorsBLLineTotalInnings
May 08, 2019boxWedhomeBlue JaysTrent Thornton - RTwinsKyle Gibson - R1-9-8L1.0O2-182-00-81059.09
May 24, 2019boxFrihomeBlue JaysTrent Thornton - RPadresJoey Lucchesi - L3-6-3L0.5O3-71-00-31108.59
May 29, 2019boxWedawayBlue JaysTrent Thornton - RRaysBlake Snell - L3-4-1L-0.5U12-140-02-12207.510+
Jun 21, 2019boxFriawayBlue JaysTrent Thornton - RRed SoxChris Sale - L5-7-2L3.0O11-140-24-23109.010+
Jun 26, 2019boxWedawayBlue JaysTrent Thornton - RYankeesJames Paxton - L7-8-1L5.0O13-160-25-123010.09
Jul 15, 2019boxMonawayBlue JaysTrent Thornton - RRed SoxRick Porcello - R8-10-2L7.0O13-130-20-617011.09
Aug 06, 2019boxTueawayBlue JaysTrent Thornton - RRaysAndrew Kittredge - R6-7-1L4.5O8-121-26-11808.510+
Aug 17, 2019boxSathomeBlue JaysTrent Thornton - RMarinersReggie McClain - R3-4-1L-3.5U9-61-10-2-16010.59
Aug 23, 2019boxFriawayBlue JaysTrent Thornton - RMarinersJustus Sheffield - L-1159.5
 
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