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2020 Totals

Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
RECORD THROUGH 1-22-20
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* For CLV Breakdown: 2 and -2 columns are actually every bet >2 or <-2 of the closing number respectively.

** All plays listed are graded with -110 juice.
 
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Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
Already behind on the first big conference Saturday of the year so no time for nonsense. Best of luck to all in 2020!

1-4-20
609-610 North Carolina St. / Clemson - u139.5
625-626 Wyoming / Colorado St. - u127.5
671-672 UTEP / Florida Atlantic - u130.5
697-698 Auburn / Mississippi St. - o138
727-728 Georgia Tech / North Carolina - u137.5
729-730 Iowa St. / TCU - u144
731-732 UNC Greensboro / Wofford - u129
737-738 Texas A&M / Arkansas - u127.5 2*
743-744 Valparaiso / Evansville - o146.5
 

Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
Nice bloodbath to start the year.... Today is another day. :cheers3:

1-5-20
829-830 Northern Kentucky / Oakland - u131
835-836 St. John's / Xavier - u146
845-846 Purdue / Illinois - u131.5
 

Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
1-7-20
603-604 Miami FL / Louisville - u143.5
605-606 Virginia / Boston College - u115
611-612 Tennessee / Missouri - u122.5
 

Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
Some wild fucking moves today on the totals side. Looks like people are ready to fire up some college buckets full steam.
 

Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
1-10-20
823-824 Northern Kentucky / Illinois Chicago - u136
839-840 Butler / Providence - u126.5

Going in to this season my goal was to seriously limit the amount Extra Games I played in the rotation, especially very early in conference play when we have no idea how the dog shit teams plan to play after their run of body bag games in the noncon. To reflect this I have created separate breakdowns for the CLV and Play% data in the first post. I have also included a "Steam Play" breakdown which is just a term I use to define games where a number has moved three or more points from the consensus overnight to a range which makes the game a play. This has become a significant portion of my plays since the beginning of last season as there is often wild moves in a total after BOL opens what is basically KP's number.

BOL This Weekend All! :cheers3:
 
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Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
1-11-20
603-604 DePaul / St. John's - u147
623-624 Baylor / Kansas - u131
667-668 Texas A&M / Vanderbilt - u131.5

Much more to come...
 
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Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
663-664 Coastal Carolina / UT Arlington - o145
727-728 Air Force / New Mexico - o155
739-740 Georgia Tech / Boston College - u132
743-744 Texas Tech / West Virginia - u128
 

Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
I don't get why the over in Baylor/Kansas keeps getting pounded.

I should have waited.
LOL! Just said the exact same thing to myself. I'll likely eat my words but there's no way this game plays to KPs projected 68 pace. KU has already played 62 to a very similar paced Nova team and 65 to Huggins WVA team that clearly is not playing "press-Virginia" ball this season. Baylor is great defending the paint and I expect them to turn KU over quite a bit. They've also been the slowest team on the offensive end in limited big12 play. It's hard to see either team getting many easy baskets in this game.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
LOL! Just said the exact same thing to myself. I'll likely eat my words but there's no way this game plays to KPs projected 68 pace. KU has already played 62 to a very similar paced Nova team and 65 to Huggins WVA team that clearly is not playing "press-Virginia" ball this season. Baylor is great defending the paint and I expect them to turn KU over quite a bit. They've also been the slowest team on the offensive end in limited big12 play. It's hard to see either team getting many easy baskets in this game.
Good thoughts here.
 

sleepy

Well-Known Member
LOL! Just said the exact same thing to myself. I'll likely eat my words but there's no way this game plays to KPs projected 68 pace. KU has already played 62 to a very similar paced Nova team and 65 to Huggins WVA team that clearly is not playing "press-Virginia" ball this season. Baylor is great defending the paint and I expect them to turn KU over quite a bit. They've also been the slowest team on the offensive end in limited big12 play. It's hard to see either team getting many easy baskets in this game.
Both teams in the top 10 of kenpoms adjusted defense efficiency
 

Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
1-14-20
609-610 LSU / Texas A&M - u131.5
629-630 Texas Tech / Kansas St. - u128
635-636 TCU / West Virginia - u127.5

Eyeing a few more. Ton of stuff moving around per the usual Tuesday card.
 

sleepy

Well-Known Member
1-14-20
609-610 LSU / Texas A&M - u131.5
629-630 Texas Tech / Kansas St. - u128
635-636 TCU / West Virginia - u127.5

Eyeing a few more. Ton of stuff moving around per the usual Tuesday card.
No idea why that Texas Tech / Kansas game was bet up 7pts from open. It's like on some of these low totals people think the over is found money. I couldn't help myself and bet the shit out of the under on this.
 

Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
No idea why that Texas Tech / Kansas game was bet up 7pts from open. It's like on some of these low totals people think the over is found money. I couldn't help myself and bet the shit out of the under on this.
I have no problem battling the over bettors in these lower B12 totals. Especially love the KSU gift we were given this morning. This is a must win game for Tech and I don't expect them to fuck around and play a frenetic pace like they did at WVA Saturday. Weber has also been super consistent pace wise since the Miss St. game and they're really struggling on the offensive end in that same time frame. Oh, and now they get to face the best defense they've seen all season. This one has the classic Weber rock-fight game written all over it tonight.
 

sleepy

Well-Known Member
Its simply amazing how year after year the BOL opening CBB totals almost exclusively are always bet over. Even more amazing is how these guys betting all these overs never run out of money.
 

sleepy

Well-Known Member
The thing I don't get is on these low totals that are sub 130 they always get double and triple popped over. You would think BOL would adjust and just bring these out 5pts higher. Guess the must be making money to put out a number that has zero chance to be bet under.
 

Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
The thing I don't get is on these low totals that are sub 130 they always get double and triple popped over. You would think BOL would adjust and just bring these out 5pts higher. Guess the must be making money to put out a number that has zero chance to be bet under.
I truly think they have no idea where to set the number at in these lower total games an are willing to let someone max-bet their lower totals a few times (even if it's just market manipulation) on the lower overnight limits rather than set the number too high and get crushed when the full market opens. With that said, the moves once the market fully opens have been absolutely wild the last two weeks and they seem to get more volatile every season. It's gotten to the point where the only steam I even fear anymore is moves less than an hour before the game tips.

Basically I refuse to even look at the board until around 8:30am EDT day of and do my best to not get bent out of shape if I miss the best number or if something moves against me in those early AM hours. The #1 thing I have worked on this season is to distance myself from worrying about what the market is doing all day and just trusting the process. If a game isn't an obvious play after my first pass through I write down the number I'd play it at and go with it once it gets there. It's taken me a lot of years and a lot of stupid mistakes to learn something as simple as that. Getting older sometimes has it's benefits. :cheers6:
 

inZane

Well-Known Member
Do you ever live bet when teams get off to a fast start and you liked the under?

I've been watching for games like that and sometimes I do get burned, but I find the extra points added from the beginning flurry come in handy at the end, once they settle down to the original game plan more often than not.
 

Son_of_Balrog

Well-Known Member
Do you ever live bet when teams get off to a fast start and you liked the under?

I've been watching for games like that and sometimes I do get burned, but I find the extra points added from the beginning flurry come in handy at the end, once they settle down to the original game plan more often than not.
I tend to avoid live betting as much as possible because it almost always brings out my degenerate gambler side, but I do believe their is value to be had by the disciplined bettor. Playing against a hot start is difficult to do but I’m a firm believer in teams regressing to their mean when it comes to jump shooting even in as small a sample as one game. Now if the teams start hot getting to the rim at will or getting to the line a ton I’d want no part of playing against it. Pace and jump shooting are the things I mainly consider if I’m looking at a 2nd half total. I do play those on occasion but don‘t track them here as they’re not plays based off any modeling.
 
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