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2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Discussion

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
These majors are just flying together with this new format...

This is the first at Pebble since 2010.

I think this will bring a lot more guys into contention than at the PGA. Brooks is still the favorite in every major for the forseeable future but this course is a bit different and they also set it up much different from the Pro-Am in February.

Previous two US Opens at Pebble this century:

GMac won in 2010 with a score of E. It was a brutal final round. This was the Dustin Johnson 82. He was -6 and up 3 shots to start the day. The only guy in the top 10 who broke 70 was Kuch with a 68. Notables in top-10 that will play this year(I believe): Tiger, Phil, DJ, Kuch, Sneds.

Tiger won in 200 as well all know with a score of -12. The margin of victory was 15 shots so 2nd place was +3.

*Ernie finished top 5 or so of both. I am not sure if he is qualified. Westwood was also high in 2000, but again not sure if he is qualified.

You get the jist, they do not make this course easy as it is a classic US Open as far as the setup. I would imagine it would be pretty close to the same. I read an article today from the media day that said it is quite think and lush. So, be ready.

Looking at the last 20 years or so of Pro-Am winners:

-Phil 4 times since 2005
-Tiger in 2000
-DJ in 2009/2010
-Sneds in 2013/2015
-Spieth in 2017


It is a classic course and watching guys go through the gauntlet (8-10) and also having to play 14 (one of the harder par 5's to begin with on tour but damn near impossible with certain pins locations in a US Open) is great.

I think this is going to be a helluva tourney.

My real early looks...

-Brooks
-DJ
-Tiger (he has to play Memorial though)
-Phil
-Rickie
-Rose
-Mole
-X
-Sneds

Those are obviously guys that won't have great prices, but they fit this course well imo. Obviously more will come to mind as we get closer and discuss more.
 

LeRinkRat

Well-Known Member
already bopped a few of my "cats & dogs". some are not yet qualified "come bets"

Matt Kuchar 50-1 (20/1029)
Matt Wallace 125-1 (8/1008)
Haotong Li 150-1 (7/1057)
Shane Lowry 150-1 (7/1057)
Lucas Bjerregaard 200-1 (5/1005)
Eddie Pepperell 200-1 (5/1005)
Justin Harding 250-1 (4/1004)
Jazz Janewattanaond 250-1 (4/1004) << NOT qualed
Sung Kang 250-1 (4/1004) << NOT qualed
Julian Suri 250-1 (4/1004) << NOT qualed
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 250-1 (4/1004)
Jorge Campillo 300-1 (5/1505) << NOT qualed
 
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B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Tiger is playing Memorial next week. I believe he's also practicing at Pebble.
 

Trash TD

Active Member
Long time lurker, figured I'd join the discussion

I locked these during PGA:
Koepka @ 12 now 6
DJ @ 10 now 7
Spieth @ 18 (might have overpaid but if he keeps it up this week I think his odds shorten)
Fleetwood @ 28 (maybe too early but he has been close in last two US Opens so good value IMO)
Cantlay @ 50 now 40
Snedeker @ 140 now 100
Casey @ 50 now 40
JDay @ 25

Pondering Molinari, Matt Wallace, Xander, Phil, Stenson, Kuchar, Hideki - Pebble will require great iron play and solid tee shots into the fairway. Holding off for now as I think more money will flow to Tiger as we get closer making odds for the others a little longer. Or so I hope... Think we'll have a good barometer after Memorial
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Long time lurker, figured I'd join the discussion

I locked these during PGA:
Koepka @ 12 now 6
DJ @ 10 now 7
Spieth @ 18 (might have overpaid but if he keeps it up this week I think his odds shorten)
Fleetwood @ 28 (maybe too early but he has been close in last two US Opens so good value IMO)
Cantlay @ 50 now 40
Snedeker @ 140 now 100
Casey @ 50 now 40
JDay @ 25

Pondering Molinari, Matt Wallace, Xander, Phil, Stenson, Kuchar, Hideki - Pebble will require great iron play and solid tee shots into the fairway. Holding off for now as I think more money will flow to Tiger as we get closer making odds for the others a little longer. Or so I hope... Think we'll have a good barometer after Memorial
Awesome man, love getting more golf talk. Feel free to enter the contest too.
 

LeRinkRat

Well-Known Member
Long time lurker, figured I'd join the discussion

I locked these during PGA:
Koepka @ 12 now 6
DJ @ 10 now 7
Spieth @ 18 (might have overpaid but if he keeps it up this week I think his odds shorten)
Fleetwood @ 28 (maybe too early but he has been close in last two US Opens so good value IMO)
Cantlay @ 50 now 40
Snedeker @ 140 now 100
Casey @ 50 now 40
JDay @ 25

Pondering Molinari, Matt Wallace, Xander, Phil, Stenson, Kuchar, Hideki - Pebble will require great iron play and solid tee shots into the fairway. Holding off for now as I think more money will flow to Tiger as we get closer making odds for the others a little longer. Or so I hope... Think we'll have a good barometer after Memorial
You can still get "WALL-E" @ 125-1 @ William-Hill. down to 60-1 @ Westgate and 50-1 @ South Point. tied 3rd PGA last week [-2]. tied 2nd British Masters week before [-15]. current tied 6th Made in Denmark [-4] first round in a howling wind worse than Bethpage Black last Sunday. also solo 2nd Dubai Desert Classic back in January [-17] he is current 2nd in Euro Tour Race to Dubai standings. three wins on the Euro tour last season
 
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Trash TD

Active Member
You can still get "WALL-E" @ 125-1 @ William-Hill. down to 60-1 @ Westgate and 50-1 @ South Point. tied 3rd PGA last week [-2]. tied 2nd British Masters week before [-15]. current tied 6th Made in Denmark [-4] first round in a howling wind worse than Bethpage Black last Sunday. also solo 2nd Dubai Desert Classic back in January [-17] he is current 2nd in Euro Tour Race to Dubai standings. three wins on the Euro tour last season
My book hasn't offered Wallace yet - what do you think accounts for such disparate odds? Are some books known for golf more than others? That's awesome that you can shop around.

Looking at some more Euros, what are your thoughts on Shane Lowry - he has a decent US Open track record in recent memory (minus MC last year) and had top 10 at Bethpage. I see him at 80 on my book but I think he'll depreciate...
 

LeRinkRat

Well-Known Member
Looking at some more Euros, what are your thoughts on Shane Lowry - he has a decent US Open track record in recent memory (minus MC last year) and had top 10 at Bethpage. I see him at 80 on my book but I think he'll depreciate...

I have a bet on "Fat Bastard" @ 150-1 @ William-Hill and he is still that at both there and Westgate. like you said he played well at Bethpage Black last week with tied 8th [+1] and was one of the few players under par in the wind Sunday. also recently got tied 3rd at RBC Heritage [-10] AND won the early season HSBC - Abu Dhabi [-18] which is a Euro Tour Rolex Series "big bucks" tourney :shake:
 

guaranteeed

CTG Moderator
Staff member
Bear in mind I liked rickie at the pga

But this is Phil's last real shot at the us open isnt it, maybe even a major? He wont get a better course than this, without looking at next few years, he just knows pebble so well
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Bear in mind I liked rickie at the pga

But this is Phil's last real shot at the us open isnt it, maybe even a major? He wont get a better course than this, without looking at next few years, he just knows pebble so well
This is definitely his last chance at a US Open you would think. Next year it is at Winged Foot... he might want to skip that one ;)

The PGA doesn't offer any good upcoming courses for him.

The Open is the type an older guy can compete in...so you never know there.
 

LeRinkRat

Well-Known Member
Bear in mind I liked rickie at the pga

But this is Phil's last real shot at the us open isnt it, maybe even a major? He wont get a better course than this, without looking at next few years, he just knows pebble so well
"Lefty" is 30-1 across the board in Las Vegas. his Pebble Beach WINS:
August 17th 1998
February 13th 2005
February 11th 2007
February 11th 2019 (also got tied 2nd 2018)
 
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Trash TD

Active Member
Added Kuchar @ 55. Thinking he has a good week at Memorial which shortens his odds to 40-45 range. He's your FedEx Cup leader going into Memorial, good value IMO.

At 2010 US Open at Pebble, he backdoored a t6 finishing four shots behind GMac.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Added Kuchar @ 55. Thinking he has a good week at Memorial which shortens his odds to 40-45 range. He's your FedEx Cup leader going into Memorial, good value IMO.

At 2010 US Open at Pebble, he backdoored a t6 finishing four shots behind GMac.
I like how you think (as far as getting value etc)
 

Trash TD

Active Member
JRose’s caddie Fooch is taking an indefinite leave of absence due to health reasons. Godspeed.

Not sure what this means for JRose, but I guess we’ll see...
 

Trash TD

Active Member
Kaymer’s solid round today (Thursday) at Jack's piqued my curiosity - what has this guy been doing since he waltzed through Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014 to win the US Open?

Well, he's had a couple decent PGAs (2015 and 2016), a t4 at the Honda (2017), a t6 at WGC Shanghai (2015), and who knows what he was doing on the Euro Tour. This calendar year, Kaymer has been nothing spectacular on the PGA Tour with his best finish a t33 at Arnie's event. He has made it to the weekend at most events, but has been playing the weekends before TV coverage starts. For what it's worth, he did post a t8 at the British Masters earlier this month.

Back to 2014, Kaymer came into The Players in arguably a little bit better form than he's in now with two top 25s in the calendar year at Quail Hollow and Harbour Town - these were his last two tourneys before Sawgrass. Kaymer would win The Players (after an opening round 63) by one over Furyk and would blast the field at No. 2 as he opened 65-65 the following month in June.

I see one main similarity between No. 2 and Pebble - the approach shot is crucial. Pebble has some of the smallest greens on average and its imperative that players leave themselves uphill putts as the downhill ones are treacherous. Pinehurst is famous for the turtleback greens making the green much smaller than they truly are. Leave your approach in the wrong place on either of these tracks and par is one helluva score - bogey or worse is certainly in play.

Has Kaymer found something this week? Hell if I know, there's still 54 holes left. Although, I'd be remiss if I failed to mention that Kaymer was t8 at Pebble in 2010....

All of the above was enough for me to get a little taste @ 160 - wanted to pass along the info to others who like to take the long shots
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Kaymer’s solid round today (Thursday) at Jack's piqued my curiosity - what has this guy been doing since he waltzed through Pinehurst No. 2 in 2014 to win the US Open?

Well, he's had a couple decent PGAs (2015 and 2016), a t4 at the Honda (2017), a t6 at WGC Shanghai (2015), and who knows what he was doing on the Euro Tour. This calendar year, Kaymer has been nothing spectacular on the PGA Tour with his best finish a t33 at Arnie's event. He has made it to the weekend at most events, but has been playing the weekends before TV coverage starts. For what it's worth, he did post a t8 at the British Masters earlier this month.

Back to 2014, Kaymer came into The Players in arguably a little bit better form than he's in now with two top 25s in the calendar year at Quail Hollow and Harbour Town - these were his last two tourneys before Sawgrass. Kaymer would win The Players (after an opening round 63) by one over Furyk and would blast the field at No. 2 as he opened 65-65 the following month in June.

I see one main similarity between No. 2 and Pebble - the approach shot is crucial. Pebble has some of the smallest greens on average and its imperative that players leave themselves uphill putts as the downhill ones are treacherous. Pinehurst is famous for the turtleback greens making the green much smaller than they truly are. Leave your approach in the wrong place on either of these tracks and par is one helluva score - bogey or worse is certainly in play.

Has Kaymer found something this week? Hell if I know, there's still 54 holes left. Although, I'd be remiss if I failed to mention that Kaymer was t8 at Pebble in 2010....

All of the above was enough for me to get a little taste @ 160 - wanted to pass along the info to others who like to take the long shots
Outstanding stuff. I noticed that t-8 as well in my research. Guy looked unstoppable at #2, no doubt then dropped off.
 

LeRinkRat

Well-Known Member
well you can STILL get "The Kraut" @ 200-1 @ South Point after his [-6] 66 for a two shot lead [-15] over Adam Scott

AND went ahead and "payed up" for Adam Scott US Open 40-1 (25/1025). he has been playing pretty good golf this season with current 2nd Memorial [-13] going into Sunday. tied 8th PGA [+1] tied 12th Players [-11] tied 18th Masters [-6] and solo 2nd Farmers Insurance [-19]. he WON the 2013 Masters and was 2nd in the 2012 British Open BUT blew a four shot lead the final round at Royal Lytham & St Annes to hand the tourney to Ernie Els
 
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Trash TD

Active Member
well you can STILL get "The Kraut" @ 200-1 @ South Point after his [-6] 66 for a two shot lead [-15] over Adam Scott

AND went ahead and "payed up" for Adam Scott US Open 40-1 (25/1025). he has been playing pretty good golf this season with current 2nd Memorial [-13] going into Sunday. tied 8th PGA [+1] tied 12th Players [-11] tied 18th Masters [-6] and solo 2nd Farmers Insurance [-19]. he WON the 2013 Masters and was 2nd in the 2012 British Open BUT blew a four shot lead the final round at Royal Lytham & St Annes to hand the tourney to Ernie Els
Did the same with AScott @ 40 - now seeing him @ 33. Good pick up the way he’s been playing tee to green. Now if he could just get some putts to drop...
 

LeRinkRat

Well-Known Member
Added some more to Cantlay @ 28. He’s looking terrific after a 31 front 9 at Jack’s
considering Patrick Cantlay's season so far esp in the two majors played, tied 9th Masters [-10] and tied 3rd PGA [-2], I think I will follow. he is 30-1 @ William-Hill and 25-1 @ Westgate and South Point :)
 

Trash TD

Active Member
considering Patrick Cantlay's season so far esp in the two majors played, tied 9th Masters [-10] and tied 3rd PGA [-2], I think I will follow. he is 30-1 @ William-Hill and 25-1 @ Westgate and South Point :)
Seeing Cantlay @ 66 for Portrush. Hopped on it. T12 at The Open last year
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
JT is my main horse of the week...anything near or over 30-1 I think is a wonderful price

Other darts are small shots on Stenson at 86-1 and Hatton at 125-1 and Greme at 100-1
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
JT is my main horse of the week...anything near or over 30-1 I think is a wonderful price

Other darts are small shots on Stenson at 86-1 and Hatton at 125-1 and Greme at 100-1
Love the Henrik pick. Talk to me more about JT.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
The big downside is lack of course form but I think Pebble is perfect for JT especially given the ball striking I saw at the RBC. I think the time off with the wrist injury has him fresh and ready to go and in better form than he was heading into the PGA with a price that is nearly double. If the putter wakes up at all he will be in this on Sunday IMO.
 

Trash TD

Active Member
Didn't see any of Canada Open due to a wedding... What are the takeaways as the boys head to Pebble? Is there anything from Hamilton GC that is similar to Pebble?
 

Gandolf

Offensive Guru
Rory was sharp as a tack until the 15th yesterday. With 59 in sight he missed the green on a wedge from 115, with hit a poor shot into the bunker on the par 3 16th, and after a gorgeous 7 iron to 2 feet to eagle the 17th, needing birdie for the magic number, he pushed a 6 iron into the right bunker.

I don't know if it was nerves, over-excitement or whether he suddenly fell out of the zone, but I didn't like the finish. I know its hard to argue with 67-66-64-61, but sometimes the light clicks off just that fast.

DJ and JT both finished with 3 straight sub 70 rounds, they seem fine. Brooks was pretty invisible all week, probably where he wants to be heading into a 3 peat quest.

Snedeker and Webb Simpson are two to keep an eye on, they played well all weekend an have an affinity for Pebble Beach and the US Open.
 

Trash TD

Active Member
Rory was sharp as a tack until the 15th yesterday. With 59 in sight he missed the green on a wedge from 115, with hit a poor shot into the bunker on the par 3 16th, and after a gorgeous 7 iron to 2 feet to eagle the 17th, needing birdie for the magic number, he pushed a 6 iron into the right bunker.

I don't know if it was nerves, over-excitement or whether he suddenly fell out of the zone, but I didn't like the finish. I know its hard to argue with 67-66-64-61, but sometimes the light clicks off just that fast.

DJ and JT both finished with 3 straight sub 70 rounds, they seem fine. Brooks was pretty invisible all week, probably where he wants to be heading into a 3 peat quest.

Snedeker and Webb Simpson are two to keep an eye on, they played well all weekend an have an affinity for Pebble Beach and the US Open.
Thank you for the insight. I don't trust Rory's wedge game and putter - it has been feast or famine for much of the past 2 years, maybe longer
 

Trash TD

Active Member
My ticket looks like this - doubt I'll be adding anyone else but I've been known to surprise myself. Pumped for primetime golf this week!

DJ @ 10
Tiger @ 10
Brooks @ 12
Spieth @ 18
Xander @ 25
Rickie @ 25
JDay @ 25 - now at 35
Fleetwood @ 28 - now at 35
Cantlay @ 44 - this is a blend of @ 50 and @ 28, seeing him now @14
AScott @ 40
Paul Casey @ 50
Phil @ 50 - waited for this to drop as he was wayyyy overpriced at @ 25, I was hoping for 35-40, thrilled to see 50
Kuchar @ 55
Shane Lowry @ 80
Matt Wallace @ 80
GMac @ 125
Brandt @ 140
Kaymer @ 160

So who scares me that I've left off my ticket? For me, number 1 has to be JRose especially since I'm seeing him now @ 25, very good value for the #4 golfer in the world who had solid outings at Quail and Jack's.

Number 2 would be Molinari if he can find the putting stroke he had at Augusta and not Bethpage, seeing him now @ 35 which like JRose, excellent value for #6 golfer in the world. But where has he been since Colonial?

Number 3 is JT although I'm not totally sold on his wrist being back. And this will be third tourney in three weeks for him... is it too much to ask of him? We'll find out. My understanding is he looked good in Canada, but I'm not seeing anything about that course which relates to Pebble. I think he's priced right @ 25.

Number 4 is Webb - he has been very solid since running away with the 2018 Players. I'm seeing him now @ 40 which IMO is inflated, I thought there was great value @ 66 but if I were to take another golfer, I don't know how I could pick Webb over Molinari or JRose...

Good luck
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Thanks for the recap Gandy...

I'll get more involved in here tomorrow evening. I am getting pretty fired up for this.
 

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