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2019 Preseason Guesses

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
John Harbaugh is the most profitable preseason coach in memory. He has went 29-15-1 (66%) ATS since 2004.
In Week 1 of the preseason the Ravens are 10-1 ATS.

So I'll take
  • 264 Baltimore Ravens -3 -110
Added significance since I live in Jax and I'm glad to fade the home team
 
Head Coach Preseason Betting Records
CoachATS RecordO/U Record
Bill Belichick39-37-6 (51.3%)40-40-2
Andy Reid38-39-4 (49.4%)44-36-1
Mike Tomlin24-26 (48.0%)20-30
Pete Carroll33-16 (67.3%)23-26
Sean Payton26-23 (53.1%)22-23-4
John Harbaugh30-15 (66.7%)20-24-1
Jon Gruden18-12-3 (60.0%)15-18
Jason Garrett11-21-1 (34.4%)14-16-3
Ron Rivera17-14-1 (54.8%)18-14
Mike Zimmer14-7 (66.7%)8-12-1
Bruce Arians10-9-2 (52.6%)11-10
Jay Gruden11-9 (55.0%)7-13
Bill O’Brien11-7-1 (61.1%)6-13
Doug Marrone8-8-1 (50.0%)7-10
Dan Quinn4-13 (23.5%)5-11-1
Pat Shurmur6-7 (46.2%)6-6-1
Doug Pederson7-5 (58.3%)4-8
Adam Gase5-7 (41.7%)8-3-1
Sean McVay4-4 (50.0%)3-4-1
Anthony Lynn3-5 (37.5%)4-3-1
Sean McDermott3-5 (37.5%)3-5
Kyle Shanahan3-4-1 (42.9%)5-3
Matt Nagy3-2 (60.0%)4-1
Frank Reich4-0 (100.0%)1-3
Matt Patricia1-3 (25.0%)3-1
Mike Vrabel0-4 (0.0%)2-2
Zac Taylor*0-0 (0.0%)0-0
Vic Fangio*1-0 (100%)0-1
Matt LaFleur*0-0 (0.0%)0-0
Kliff Kingsbury*0-0 (0.0%)0-0
Freddie Kitchens*0-0 (0.0%)0-0
Brian Flores*0-0 (0.0%)0-0
 
Health concerns drove Arians to retire from the Cardinals but it didn't take long for him to get back into the league. It speaks to what he did with AZ with how quickly they plummeted after he left and why Tampa fans have good reason to be excited at what he brings to the table. Thinking more of a statement for TB even at Pitt. Steelers have to work around many new faces and there's no way their offense clicks right away. Tampa looks to make a statement here showing they are back.
  • 273 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 -130
  • 273 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2½ -105
  • 273 Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Pittsburgh Steelers Under 37½ -109
Split 1/2 unit each on reduced juice and buying a half point. Tomlin known to keep these preseason total under as well
 
YTD ~ [2-2 -0.32] (My plays are always risking 1u unless specified otherwise)
  • 401 Philadelphia Eagles/Jacksonville Jaguars* Under 35 -116
    1.16/1
  • 401 Philadelphia Eagles/Jacksonville Jaguars 1st Quarter Under 7½ -175
    2.1/1.2
  • 401 Philadelphia Eagles* +135 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
    .6/.81

Really can't see much scoring tonight. Jags still have lots of potential starters. Coach Moron is resting anyone with a stubbed toe because he was burnt with presaeson injuries last year. According to local source 27 roster players are not available tonight. This will be ugly football. Jags 1Q is a gift if something dont get weird like a pick 6. The the same group that got shut out last week will try again to score some points tonight.. last season the jags were 10-6 under; to end their season the last 5 home games stayed under. They try to be a running team without there stud RB, poor recipe. Only way Jags win is with D or special team score(s) and very low scoring

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Got luck last night and all fell in place. Let me point out I have no huge insight or edge in these preseaon games and therefore these are played with a very small unit size. My typical unit is 2.5-3% of my bankroll on MLB and college hoops/football but NFL regular season is 1.5% and preseason 1%. This is unit size and I will go as high as 2u on some games...maybe a little more on a ML.

Tonight the Bills visit Carolina and catch 3. Josh Allen had a poor rookie season on a bad team and likely can't help but to improve on his 2018 65ish QB rating. He didn't exactly show off vs Colts last week going 6-11 for 66yds in limited action(No TD's on his watch). With the Panthers primarily playing a zone if takes away some of his ability to get out of the pocket and run, plus the mid range game will likely be tighter to work. Panthers worked hard in the offseason to bolster subpar pass rush and maybe it's paying off as the sacked the Bears 5 times a week ago.

YTD ~ [5-2 +2.69]​
  1. 8/16/2019 7:00 PM Reduced Football 412 Carolina Panthers* -1 -105 vs Buffalo Bills
    1/.952
  2. 8/16/2019 7:30 PM Reduced Football 413 Chicago Bears/New York Giants* Under 41 -108
    1/.926

1565989044770.png
 
Love the extra attention to detail with the cheerleaders, lends confidence and a certain joie de vie. Really like tonight's sponsor.
 
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