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Kentucky Derby 2018

Gandolf

Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Time to get the ball rolling on the 2018 Triple Crown races. This year is either one of the most wide open prep seasons in recent memory, or one of the least, depending on when you started paying attention. With the exception of McKinzie (who unfortunately fell off the Trail) we did not see a horse win consecutive preps until Audible followed up his Holy Bull win with a Florida Derby triumph, but he had skipped the Fountain of Youth in the process. On the other hand, the 100 point preps were dominated by the favorites, and in Justify we may have a good shot at another Triple Crown winner, with a clear next tier featuring Bolt D'Oro, Audible, Good Magic, Magnum Moon and maybe a couple of others.

A really nice summary of the prep winners and their various speed ratings is listed here: http://helloracefans.com/races/kentucky-derby/2018-kentucky-derby-prep-schedule/
 
Derby Standings (sire) pts (owner) trainer/earnings

1. Magnum Moon (Malibu Moon) 150 (Lawana L. & Robert E. Low) Todd Pletcher/$1,140,000
2. Good Magic (Curlin) 134 (e Five & Stonestreet) Chad Brown/$1,838,400
3. Audible (Into Mischief) 110 (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight & WinStar) Todd Pletcher/$803,520
4. Noble Indy (Take Charge Indy) 110 (WinStar & Repole) Todd Pletcher/$640,000
5. Vino Rosso (Curlin) 107 (Repole & St. Elias) Todd Pletcher/$572,500
6. Bolt d’Oro (Md'O) 104 (Ruis Racing) Mick Ruis/$980,000
7. Enticed (Md'O) 103 (Godolphin) Kiaran McLaughlin/$545,880
8. Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) 100 (Coolmore) Aidan O’Brien/$1,947,299
9. Justify (Scat Daddy) 100 (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight & WinStar) Bob Baffert/$600,000
10. Quip (Distorted Humor) 90 (WinStar, China Horse Club & SF Racing) Rodolphe Brisset/$412,000
11. Flameaway (Scat Daddy) 70 (John C. Oxley) Mark Casse/$672,260
12. Solomini (Curlin) 54 (Zayat Stables & Coolmore) Bob Baffert/$716,000
13. Bravazo (Awesome Again) 54 (Calumet Farm) D. Wayne Lukas/$359,913
14. My Boy Jack (Creative Cause) 52 (Don’t Tell My Wife Stables & Monomoy Stables) Keith Desormeaux/$622,000
15. Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford) 52 (Robert J. Baron) Dale Romans/$266,480
16. Free Drop Billy (Union Rags) 44 (Albaugh Family Stables) Dale Romans/$597,200
17. Lone Sailor (Majestic Warrior) 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/$273,347
18. Hofburg (Tapit) 40 (Juddmonte Farms) Bill Mott/$192,000
19. Firenze Fire (Poseidon's Warrior) 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/$647,500
20. Gronkowski (Lonhro) Euro Slot (Phoenix Thoroughbred) Jeremy Noseda/$79,496
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
21. Combatant (Scat Daddy) 22 (Winchell & Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/$350,000
22. Snapper Sinclair (City Zip) 22 (Bloom Racing) Steve Asmussen/$321,810
23. Reride (Candy Ride) 20 (Winchell) Steve Asmussen/$298,000
24. Dream Baby Dream (Into Mischief) 20 (Dream Baby Dream Racing) Steve Asmussen/$181,000
25. Restoring Hope (Giant's Causeway) 20 (Gary & Mary West) Bob Baffert/$100,000
 
Thanks for starting this off Gandolf. Looking forward to this year's Derby as I think it is a pretty wide open race. Visually, Justify, is a legit favorite but there are plenty of questions with him, curse of Apollo (no horse has won the Derby without racing as a 2yo since Apollo in 1882), hasn't run out of California, has run in some small fields, and figures to be involved in what appears to be at a quick early pace. Mendelssohn might be the most legit foreign shipper we've seen in the Derby. Which Good Magic shows up? Can he put consecutive good races together? Pletcher sending out another 4 horses this year. As you mentioned Audible is the only contender to win consecutive preps but his breeding suggests distance limitations. Sol Kumin might buy interest in half the field by post time. Think it's going to be an interesting few weeks leading up to the race.

Here's a link to replays of the prep races: http://www.andheretheycome.com/kentucky-derby-prep-race-results.html
 
One of the lessons I RE-learned last year was the Oxbow effect. If you remember the year Orb won the Derby (2013) the pace set by Palace Malice was brutally fast and almost all the front runners collapsed. All except one, Oxbow, who hung on for sixth. His strong effort turned into a superior performance at the Preakness, where he won at about 16-1.

The lesson was forgotten but reemerged last year when Battle of Midway ran into American Anthem and a hot pace duel in the Santa Anita Derby. While American Anthem faded, Battle of Midway ran on only to get tagged but Gormley. But the good effort into a strong pace was beneficial in the Derby, where he took advantage of a slower pace to track Always Dreaming closely and then hang on for third at a large, exotic boosting price.

So do we have a prep this year that could launch a surprise exotics choice and a big superfecta payout? Here are the BRIS pace ratings at 4 and 6 furlongs for the most recent derby preps:

Arkansas Derby -15/-19 (a very slow pace)
Blue Grass +3/+2 (good pace, but not fast)
Florida Derby +16/+2 (fast early but slowed in the 3rd quarter)
Louisiana Derby +18/+9 (strong pace)
Wood Memorial +15/+9 (another strong pace)
Santa Anita Derby 0/-9 (unlike last year, this pace was slow)
Lexington +8/+5 (good pace, not fast(

So we'll need to keep an eye on the Wood and LA Derby horses, although I feel not to the extent of last year with BoM.
 
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Horses Grouped by Running Style and Quirin Points - gives a picture of how where horses could be positioned

E - Early
Promises Fulfilled 8 points
Quip 6

EP - Early Presser
Justify 7
Noble Indy 7
Magnum Moon 6
Flameaway 6
Bravazo 5
Audible 4
Bolt d’Oro 4
Gronkowski Euro, unknown

P - Presser
Good Magic 4
Mendelssohn 4
Solomini 4
Enticed 3
Free Drop Billy 2
Hofburg 2

S - Sustainer
Vino Rosso 4
Lone Sailor 3
Firenze Fire 3
My Boy Jack 0
 
Early toss - Firenze Fire

After beating Good Magic and Enticed in the Champagne last year, this colt has been a disappointment in 2018. He won the Jerome in the mud against a subpar group, then tracked a solid pace (+12) in the Withers but couldn't run down Avery Island in the stretch. Then in the Gotham Manny Franco laid him 4 lengths off a similar solid pace (+10) but he lost ground to Entice and Free Drop Billy in the stretch. Lastly in the Wood, similar setup (+9 pace), and laid back a little further (6 lengths) and still he lost multiple lengths to Vino Rosso, Enticed and Restoring Hope in the stretch.

His top speed figure was in the Champagne last fall and it would not be good enough to sniff top 10 in the Derby. He's had nine races already, four this year, and isn't improving. Seems like he'll be in the last quarter of the field to start and may clunk his way to ninth or tenth.
 
any good races we should be keeping an eye on this weekend or coming up?
Keeneland? Tampa? Santa Anita?
 
Sorry ProV1Colt, missed this post. Derby prep races are all done, but the Tesio Stakes at Laurel was one on Saturday where the winner got an all-expense paid trip to the Preakness. Diamond King ridden by Parx vet Frankie Pennington punched his ticket.

Upcoming weekend is opening weekend for beautiful Belmont Park (Fri) and Churchill (Sat). Good weekend to watch how the track plays and start sharpening the handicapping.
 
How many throw away their money on Gronk just cause of the name?
Questionable right now to run due to a setback in training, but I hope he makes it to the race because he will be one of the biggest underlay's we've seen in a long while and is a complete toss for me
 
Posted : 1 min ago
Quip out of Derby, per WinStar's Walden, who said he "needs more time"

Quip, second in the Arkansas Derby, will bypass the Kentucky Derby and point for the Preakness, according to Elliott Walden, whose WinStar Farm is a co-owner of the colt.
"We're not going to run him," Walden said from the 2-year-old sale in Ocala, Fla. "We wanted a little more time with him."
His defection guarantees that Combatant gets into the race, and with the defection of Gronkowski a strong possibility, that would get Instilled Regard into the race.
 
That's a shame, Quip had a little bit of early speed. Combatant will be sitting well back and try to make one long 6 furlong run. He's been getting into decent position on the far turn of his races:

Ark Derby - 8th to 5th
Rebel - 6th to 3rd
Southwest - 7th to 2nd
Smarty Jones - held 2nd
Springboard Mile - 5th to 2nd

But that's been the extent of it. Each time he fizzles out in the stretch:

Ark Derby - 5th to 4th, lost 1 length on winner
Rebel - held 3rd, gained 1/2 length
Southwest - held 2nd, lost 4 lengths
Smarty Jones - held 2nd, gained 3/4 length
Springboard Mile - held 2nd, lost 1/4 length

With a field of 20 to contend with, and probably 17 or 18 ahead of him as he enters the far turn, he may push his way to 10th head into the stretch then flatten his way to a mid-pack finish.
 
I thought last year you could toss 1/2 the field from even hitting the superfecta. Not as many this year.
 
That's a shame, Quip had a little bit of early speed. Combatant will be sitting well back and try to make one long 6 furlong run. He's been getting into decent position on the far turn of his races:

Ark Derby - 8th to 5th
Rebel - 6th to 3rd
Southwest - 7th to 2nd
Smarty Jones - held 2nd
Springboard Mile - 5th to 2nd

But that's been the extent of it. Each time he fizzles out in the stretch:

Ark Derby - 5th to 4th, lost 1 length on winner
Rebel - held 3rd, gained 1/2 length
Southwest - held 2nd, lost 4 lengths
Smarty Jones - held 2nd, gained 3/4 length
Springboard Mile - held 2nd, lost 1/4 length

With a field of 20 to contend with, and probably 17 or 18 ahead of him as he enters the far turn, he may push his way to 10th head into the stretch then flatten his way to a mid-pack finish.

Good analysis on him. My problem with him is he couldn't pass Solomini either time at Oaklawn despite having much better trips. He's a nibbler and I think people will think he's built for the 1 1/4.
 
These 5 are on my toss list. Meaning I will not have them anywhere on my superfecta wagers.

1) Promises Fulfilled
2) Bravazo
3) Instilled Regard
4) Firenze Fire
5) Free Drop Billy
 
My biggest question for the Derby is why Velazquez stays on Vino Rosso when he rode him and Audible both last time. I thought Audible was a no brainier. He's my pick right now.
 
Vino Rosso seems like a horse that will be running well late, and with Johnny V on him he's got a decent shot at getting a good trip. My initial 4 horse super box (fast track) is Justify, Audible, Bolt and Vino Rosso. Having a hard time getting away from those SA Derby speed figures, and I agree Audible looks like the real deal.
 
If Mendelssohn draws a gate it wins. Different horse since blinkers added, and there is no better jockey going round then Moore
Mendelssohn is the wildcard here, I would typically throw out European horses but he is a little different. Bred with more dirt pedigree than your typical European horse, is a half brother to Beholder, did ship to US as a 2yo and won the BC Juvenile Turf in November. The Dubai race can be considered a bit of a trap however impressive it was, winning by 18 lengths but he did have everything go his way and took advantage of a speed/rail bias and who did he beat? Aiden and Moore are as good as it gets in this game though. I will most likely be using defensively as I think his odds are going to be much shorter than they should be as I see most of the UK shops have him as a favorite.
 
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Vino Rosso seems like a horse that will be running well late, and with Johnny V on him he's got a decent shot at getting a good trip. My initial 4 horse super box (fast track) is Justify, Audible, Bolt and Vino Rosso. Having a hard time getting away from those SA Derby speed figures, and I agree Audible looks like the real deal.

I know what you mean, but I have found the only thing more inflated than So Cal speed figures are wet track speed figures
 
I’m with you on wet track numbers, but Cal horses and Cal trainers have been strong in this race since I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister ran 1-2. Chrome, Pharoah, Nyquist, Exaggerator...even Battle of Midway outran his odds.

When I see Baffert with the favorite in race that’s been won by the favorite ever since the points system was implemented....Stabile said it best yesterday, “I know only 2 camps this year...they either know Justify is their pick or they have no idea who they’re going to pick.”
 
Agreed on Mendellsohn. Hes the total wild card. But if you give me any horse to own from this years Derby through his stallion career, it's him. Just don't know what to think of him on Derby Day. But he maybe the one horse with more ability than Justify.

I've never been a big Bolt D'Or fan. Maybe he can turn the tables on Justify, but I don't think he's the same horse he was when he so brilliant before the Juevenile last year. Yeah Justify had no pressure that Day, and Mike Smith rode circles around Castellano that day.

People like to say Justify has only faced 14 horses in 3 races al on the same track. What will he do vs 19 others on Derby Day? Well I remember another Baffert horse. Won 3 races, none of them stakes, and faced 10 total horses in them. He shipped across the country and drew the rail in a 13 horse field. That was Arrogate and broe the track record in the Travers at Saratoga.
 
Oaks field is set, looking like a match race with only Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou at single digit odds. Outside the two favorites I'm looking at My Miss Lilly and Eskimo Kisses as possible price upsetters.

1. Sassy Sienna (Brad Cox/Gary Stevens) 15-1
2. Coach Rocks (Dale Romans/Luis Saez) 12-1
3. Classy Act (Bret Calhoun/B.J. Hernandez Jr.) 15-1
4. Chocolate Martini (Tom Amoss/J.J. Castellano) 12-1
5. Wonder Gadot (Mark Casse/John Velazquez) 20-1
6. Kelly's Humor (Brad Cox/Irad Ortiz) 30-1
7. Rayya (Bob Baffert/Drayden Van Dyke) 15-1
8. Heavenhasmynikki (Anthony Quartarolo/Calvin Borel) 30-1
9. Take Charge Paula (KMc/Jose Ortiz) 15-1
10. Midnight Bisou (Bill Spawr/Mike Smith) 5-2
11. My Miss Lilly (Mark Hennig/Joe Bravo) 10-1
12. Patrona Margarita (Bret Calhoun/Ricardo Santana) 30-1
13. Eskimo Kisses (Ken McPeek/Corey Lanerie) 15-1
14. Monomoy Girl (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux) 2-1
 
I think I'll try and beat Midnight Bisou in the exotics. Monomoy Girl looks like the goods. 14 hole doesn't help, but I think she can overcome it. Gonna try and sneak Wonder Gadot and Eskimo Kisses in with her.

Have to admit though, my focus has been the Derby. Haven't watched as much of the fillies this year.
 
Right now I have three categories of horses for Saturday:

Tosses
Firenze Fire
- Outlined reasons above
Combatant - Outlined reasons above.
Free Drop Billy - His Holy Bull was OK but he couldn't stick with Audible. Favored in the Gotham and got a good pace to run into, but beaten convincingly by Entice and Old Time Revival, then finished fourth in Blue Grass and DQ'd to 3rd. Declining numbers from the fresh Holy Bull run to now. He figures to run about in the 3rd quadrant of horses pace-wise and hasn't shown a big late kick all year.
Bravaso - Comes off an awful effort in LA Derby after winning Risen Star by a nose as a 21-1 shot vs Snapper Sinclair, who wasn't good enough to make the gate for Saturday. 0 for 2 at Churchill including a lousy effort in a G2 won by Enticed.
Promises Fulfilled - Expected to be the pace presence, has yet to trail at the second call in his career. Very tough to wire at the Derby and he figures to have to absorb a challenge early from the favorite. Wilted against pace pressure in the FL Derby. Son of Shackleford seems just a bit short for 10 panels.
Lone Sailor - His LA Derby runner up finish was big leap in figures and is suspect to a drop off. Only win was on a sloppy track, winless on fast tracks. Has a 2nd in a Churchill stake but was a non-factor in the Jockey Club. Guess the weakness of the LA Derby is his biggest drawback.

Can make a case buuuttt....
Noble Indy
- Winner of that weak LA Derby, probably fourth out of Pletcher's foursome. Was bumped around in both LA races and still ran well. Johnny V passes on sticking with him though, which is telling.
Instilled Regard - That SA Derby rates so well at the top that even the fourth place finisher has good numbers. IR reached the par figure for the Derby, which means in theory he could hit the board.
Flameaway - Versatile, has won on three surfaces, one turn and two turns, has run within 3 lengths of Juvy Turf/UAE Derby Winner Mendelssohn and less than two lengths from 2YO champion Good Magic in the Bluegrass. Experienced, 9 starts, 7 different tracks, only missed the board twice. BUT, lone dud in 9 starts was at Churchill. Figures to be in the first flight and has shown staying power in the stretch. Hard to see winning but if the pace and track are right he could hang on for a piece like Firing Line.
Mendelssohn - Looked like he was flying in the UAE Derby, but the opposition may have been suspect. Will learn something about him when runner-up Rayya runs in the Oaks, which is nice. Track was said to be very speed biased, and he drew the whip in the stretch which inflated the margin. Timeform gave the effort a 120, which is 12 behind Justify and only 8th best in the field. All the usual travel caveats apply. But he's more proven than past entrants, with a BC win, even if it was on turf.
Solomini - The other Baffert, took the Arkansas route that American Pharoah dominated but was beaten both times by Magnum Moon, who was lugging out in his Derby win. Pace was soft in that one, so the lack of progress in the stretch can be excused a bit. Outraced McKinzie and Instilled Regard in the G1 Los Al Futurity, but was demoted to 3rd. Third off the layoff will help, and he always looks good in training with 6 of 7 works running no worse than second on the day. Grade 1 record is solid 4 1-2-1 (technically 0-2-2 with the DQ).
Hofburg - Probably the biggest mystery, came out of his maiden win to run 2nd in the FL Derby. Is that a reflection of his talent or of the Derby field? Solid speed figure improvement in his two 2018 races, now third off the layoff. Mott has only one classic win and would probably love some roses to top off his Hall of Fame career. Barn had a first out winner at Belmont on Saturday, which is unusual as well. Maybe a huge story in the making.
My Boy Jack - Seems like he could be this year's Lookin at Lee (either him or Vino Rosso). Most experienced in the field, also most predictable race style as he's a stone cold one run closer. Probably explains why he was mostly a turf router as a two year old, but has yet to miss the board in four graded stakes on dirt. If it rains he'll be heavily used underneath, as he romped in the muddy Southwest. Would need a pace meltdown to have a win chance, which is unlikely. Should be really sharp with the short 3 week layoff.
Magnum Moon - Unbeaten, won fairly easily in Arkansas but drew concern with his lug out in the stretch. Other than that has done absolutely nothing wrong. Neither had Gemologist though in 2012. I just get the impression he's closer to that than Always Dreaming. But unbeaten is unbeaten.
Enticed - Won the Gotham but with the new Aqueduct surface it was a one turn race. However, his lone two turn win was the Jockey Club at Churchill, so that merits some respect. New York quality was not as bad as past years, but Enticed went to NY after getting solidly beaten in the Holy Bull, so there's some mixed messages there. Not much stretch gain in his two turn efforts, and will probably be mid pack heading to the turn so he'll have plenty of work to do.

Main contenders
Justify
- THE favorite, getting as much if not more buzz than Pharoah got. His top speed figure crushes everyone but Bolt D'Oro, and his 2nd best number has him right in contention. Fast or sloppy, excelled in both. Biggest drawback is the largest field he's seen is six opponents. Anything can happen in a field of 20. Does he have enough bottom to go the ten furlongs?
Bolt D'Oro - Interesting point I heard today which makes sense is Bolt is the one horse in the race besides Justify that doesn't need to get faster to have a great win chance. Strong grade 1 experience 4 2-1-1. Seems like the Dortmund to Justify's Pharoah. Javier gets off him which given his Derby record may be a plus.
Good Magic - 2YO Champ showed good form coming back as a 3YO in March and then won the Blue Grass in solid fashion. Third off the layoff should have him primed for a strong effort. Can't really knock him, and he's got a great trainer in Chad who I'm sure really wants to win this race and will have him cranked up.
Audible - Another horse that's tough to knock, won the Holy Bull then came back two months later to win nicely in FL Derby. Great back to back figures. Probably Pletcher's best horse, has improved his figure each of last four races. Laid comfortably off the pace in FL Derby then came running, should be able to duplicate that effort. Very dangerous and will be a square price.
Vino Rosso - I like this guy to be picking off horses on the far turn and into the stretch. Wood Memorial effort was a solid improvement and Johnny V has decided to stick with him, which is big for finding a good trip. Last workout was very solid according to reports. Feels like he'll have the right mix of pace to run at, jockey to get the trip, trainer to get him cranked up, and closing kick to finish well. Maybe the lightest of the win choices but a great price for hitting the board.

Should be a great race!
 
Whew.....Justify missed the #1 pill by one pull. Draws #7 instead which should be just fine.
 
Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway draw #3 and #4 and both figure to GO, which gives Mike Smith on Justify a couple of targets to track to his inside. Good spot to be in.
 
Firenze Fire getting cursed #1 post is a non-story, he had no shot. Same with #2, Free Drop Billy.
 
Great post for Justify, Promises Fulfilled also got a good post to get to the lead and as Gandy said give Justify a target to run at
 
Combatant at #20 figures to take a left hand turn coming out of the gate to get straight to the rail at the back of the pack. Interesting discussion will be where Johnny V tries to put Vino Rosso coming out of #18.

Noble Indy at #19 will want to get to the vanguard, so he's going to be hard used that first 1/4 mile.
 
ML Odds:

#1 Firenze Fire 50-1
#2 Free Drop Billy 30-1
#3 Promises Fulfilled 30-1
#4 Flameaway 30-1
#5 Audible 8-1
#6 Good Magic 12-1
#7 Justify 3-1
#8 Lone Sailor 50-1
#9 Hofburg 20-1
#10 My Boy Jack 30-1
#11 Bolt D'oro 8-1
#12 Enticed 30-1
#13 Bravazo 50-1
#14 Mendelssohn 5-1
#15 Instilled Regard 50-1
#16 Magnum Moon 6-1
#17 Solomini 30-1
#18 Vino Rosso 12-1
#19 Noble Indy 30-1
#20 Combatant 50-1
AE Blended Citizen 50-1
 
Five 50-1 shots - Instilled Regard, Bravazo, Combatant, Lone Sailor and Firenze Fire. Starting to get more 50-1 horses as we get further from the Mine That Bird miracle.

Six 30-1 shots - Promises Fulfilled, Noble Indy, Flameaway, Enticed, Free Drop Billy and My Boy Jack. Some decent horses there.
 
A pass at what things could look like heading into the first turn:

#1 Firenze Fire 50-1 - takes back, tries to get off rail
#2 Free Drop Billy 30-1 - takes back, tries to get off rail
#3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------> Promises Fulfilled 30-1 Goes hard to front
#4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------> Flameaway 30-1 Goes right with the #3
#5 --------------------------------------------------------> Audible 8-1 Tries to tuck in behind #3 and #4
#6 --------------------------------------------------------> Good Magic 12-1 Alongside #5 trying to tuck in
#7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------> Justify 3-1 Should sit in third path just off the hind of #4
#8 Lone Sailor 50-1 - takes back after the five to his left clear
#9 ----------------------------------------------->Hofburg 20-1 will try to find a place right behing #3-#7
#10 My Boy Jack 30-1 - takes back, gets a two path trip near the back
#11 ----------------------------------------------> Bolt D'oro 8-1 similar to #9
#12 ---------------------> Enticed 30-1 will look for a spot around tenth to twelve
#13 -------------------------------> Bravazo 50-1 hustled along, looking for a spot mid pack
#14 ---------------------------------------------> Mendelssohn 5-1 eyes on #11 and #9 to inside, trying to be no worse than three path
#15 ---------------------> Instilled Regard 50-1 similar to #12
#16 ----------------------------------------------------> Magnum Moon 6-1 will be hustled a bit, may be stuck wide
#17 ---------------------> Solomini 30-1 searching for mid pack spot
#18 ---------------------> Vino Rosso 12-1 searching for mid pack spot
#19 ------------------------------------------------------------> Noble Indy 30-1 will be hustled along, may be stuck wide
#20 Combatant 50-1 - left turns and heads to rail near at the back
 
None of the contenders got a bad draw. Unless you like Noble Indy. He got the worst of it. I didn't like him to begin with. Will not be on my superfecta ticket.

I thought the 1-2-3 along with Bravazo were the worst 4 going into the race. None of them have any shot.

Justify drew perfect. Three slow horses to his outside. Can sit right off the 3-4. Same can be said for Bolt. 3 slow horses to his inside. He can just sit there right and keep an eye on Justify.

I'd be shocked if Mendellsohn doesnt send hard from the 14. He's never had dirt in his face and I'm sure they don't want to find out Saturday.
 
I think Good Magic will drift down from 12-1. Think he'll gain some steam by Saturday.

Can really see Justify 2-1 going into the gates. Public will be al over Baffert.

Enticed would be my choice of 30-1 that can hit the board. I'm a Flameaway fan. But next to Promises Fullfilled and all the guns sitting on his outside, I don't see him lasting.
 
Right now I have three categories of horses for Saturday:

Tosses
Firenze Fire
- Outlined reasons above
Combatant - Outlined reasons above.
Free Drop Billy - His Holy Bull was OK but he couldn't stick with Audible. Favored in the Gotham and got a good pace to run into, but beaten convincingly by Entice and Old Time Revival, then finished fourth in Blue Grass and DQ'd to 3rd. Declining numbers from the fresh Holy Bull run to now. He figures to run about in the 3rd quadrant of horses pace-wise and hasn't shown a big late kick all year.
Bravaso - Comes off an awful effort in LA Derby after winning Risen Star by a nose as a 21-1 shot vs Snapper Sinclair, who wasn't good enough to make the gate for Saturday. 0 for 2 at Churchill including a lousy effort in a G2 won by Enticed.
Promises Fulfilled - Expected to be the pace presence, has yet to trail at the second call in his career. Very tough to wire at the Derby and he figures to have to absorb a challenge early from the favorite. Wilted against pace pressure in the FL Derby. Son of Shackleford seems just a bit short for 10 panels.
Lone Sailor - His LA Derby runner up finish was big leap in figures and is suspect to a drop off. Only win was on a sloppy track, winless on fast tracks. Has a 2nd in a Churchill stake but was a non-factor in the Jockey Club. Guess the weakness of the LA Derby is his biggest drawback.

Can make a case buuuttt....
Noble Indy
- Winner of that weak LA Derby, probably fourth out of Pletcher's foursome. Was bumped around in both LA races and still ran well. Johnny V passes on sticking with him though, which is telling.
Instilled Regard - That SA Derby rates so well at the top that even the fourth place finisher has good numbers. IR reached the par figure for the Derby, which means in theory he could hit the board.
Flameaway - Versatile, has won on three surfaces, one turn and two turns, has run within 3 lengths of Juvy Turf/UAE Derby Winner Mendelssohn and less than two lengths from 2YO champion Good Magic in the Bluegrass. Experienced, 9 starts, 7 different tracks, only missed the board twice. BUT, lone dud in 9 starts was at Churchill. Figures to be in the first flight and has shown staying power in the stretch. Hard to see winning but if the pace and track are right he could hang on for a piece like Firing Line.
Mendelssohn - Looked like he was flying in the UAE Derby, but the opposition may have been suspect. Will learn something about him when runner-up Rayya runs in the Oaks, which is nice. Track was said to be very speed biased, and he drew the whip in the stretch which inflated the margin. Timeform gave the effort a 120, which is 12 behind Justify and only 8th best in the field. All the usual travel caveats apply. But he's more proven than past entrants, with a BC win, even if it was on turf.
Solomini - The other Baffert, took the Arkansas route that American Pharoah dominated but was beaten both times by Magnum Moon, who was lugging out in his Derby win. Pace was soft in that one, so the lack of progress in the stretch can be excused a bit. Outraced McKinzie and Instilled Regard in the G1 Los Al Futurity, but was demoted to 3rd. Third off the layoff will help, and he always looks good in training with 6 of 7 works running no worse than second on the day. Grade 1 record is solid 4 1-2-1 (technically 0-2-2 with the DQ).
Hofburg - Probably the biggest mystery, came out of his maiden win to run 2nd in the FL Derby. Is that a reflection of his talent or of the Derby field? Solid speed figure improvement in his two 2018 races, now third off the layoff. Mott has only one classic win and would probably love some roses to top off his Hall of Fame career. Barn had a first out winner at Belmont on Saturday, which is unusual as well. Maybe a huge story in the making.
My Boy Jack - Seems like he could be this year's Lookin at Lee (either him or Vino Rosso). Most experienced in the field, also most predictable race style as he's a stone cold one run closer. Probably explains why he was mostly a turf router as a two year old, but has yet to miss the board in four graded stakes on dirt. If it rains he'll be heavily used underneath, as he romped in the muddy Southwest. Would need a pace meltdown to have a win chance, which is unlikely. Should be really sharp with the short 3 week layoff.
Magnum Moon - Unbeaten, won fairly easily in Arkansas but drew concern with his lug out in the stretch. Other than that has done absolutely nothing wrong. Neither had Gemologist though in 2012. I just get the impression he's closer to that than Always Dreaming. But unbeaten is unbeaten.
Enticed - Won the Gotham but with the new Aqueduct surface it was a one turn race. However, his lone two turn win was the Jockey Club at Churchill, so that merits some respect. New York quality was not as bad as past years, but Enticed went to NY after getting solidly beaten in the Holy Bull, so there's some mixed messages there. Not much stretch gain in his two turn efforts, and will probably be mid pack heading to the turn so he'll have plenty of work to do.

Main contenders
Justify
- THE favorite, getting as much if not more buzz than Pharoah got. His top speed figure crushes everyone but Bolt D'Oro, and his 2nd best number has him right in contention. Fast or sloppy, excelled in both. Biggest drawback is the largest field he's seen is six opponents. Anything can happen in a field of 20. Does he have enough bottom to go the ten furlongs?
Bolt D'Oro - Interesting point I heard today which makes sense is Bolt is the one horse in the race besides Justify that doesn't need to get faster to have a great win chance. Strong grade 1 experience 4 2-1-1. Seems like the Dortmund to Justify's Pharoah. Javier gets off him which given his Derby record may be a plus.
Good Magic - 2YO Champ showed good form coming back as a 3YO in March and then won the Blue Grass in solid fashion. Third off the layoff should have him primed for a strong effort. Can't really knock him, and he's got a great trainer in Chad who I'm sure really wants to win this race and will have him cranked up.
Audible - Another horse that's tough to knock, won the Holy Bull then came back two months later to win nicely in FL Derby. Great back to back figures. Probably Pletcher's best horse, has improved his figure each of last four races. Laid comfortably off the pace in FL Derby then came running, should be able to duplicate that effort. Very dangerous and will be a square price.
Vino Rosso - I like this guy to be picking off horses on the far turn and into the stretch. Wood Memorial effort was a solid improvement and Johnny V has decided to stick with him, which is big for finding a good trip. Last workout was very solid according to reports. Feels like he'll have the right mix of pace to run at, jockey to get the trip, trainer to get him cranked up, and closing kick to finish well. Maybe the lightest of the win choices but a great price for hitting the board.

Should be a great race!
Thanks for the thoughts. I'm going to keep an eye on the thread for picks as we get closer to the race. I'll be in Vegas with the fellas and we're going to make a few wagers.
 
I think Good Magic will drift down from 12-1. Think he'll gain some steam by Saturday.

Can really see Justify 2-1 going into the gates. Public will be al over Baffert.

Enticed would be my choice of 30-1 that can hit the board. I'm a Flameaway fan. But next to Promises Fullfilled and all the guns sitting on his outside, I don't see him lasting.
I agree on Flameaway, was trying to find a way to get him into the exotics but he looks pace compromised in this spot.

Enticed is interesting fits the race well. My Boy Jack has Lookin at Lee/Commanding Curve clunk up potential, but I like Vino Rosso better.
 
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